Analysing Drivers of Low Carbon Transitions in Post-Fukushima Japan: A Cross-City Comparison of Electricity Consumption

Abstract The 11 March 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster will forever be remembered as a once-in-a-lifetime tragedy. The changes to Japan's energy system following Fukushima may nonetheless leave future generations with a more sustainable legacy. A growing body of literature hypothesizes that transitions like this one have the potential to reshape Japan's energy system due to (1) an exogenous shock which (2) enables policy reforms that (3) gain momentum with the support of civil society organizations. However, this set of claims is based chiefly on small-n qualitative case studies at the national level in Europe. A significant opportunity exists to test the hypotheses on low carbon transitions across multiple cities in Asia. This article begins to fill that void with an econometric analysis of electricity use time-series data for 18 Japanese cities from 2007 to 2012. The results suggest that Japanese cities adopting post-Fukushima energy savings policy reforms experienced greater reductions in annual household electricity use than those not adopting reforms. At the same time, cities with higher concentrations of non-profit organizations (NPOs) saw greater reductions in annual household electricity use from the Fukushima disaster as well as post-shock policies. The research underscores the difficulties of testing transition theories and the need for qualitative research to complement inferences from quantitative studies on transitions.