基于层次分析法的铁路现代化项目选择两步法

IF 1.3 4区工程技术 Q3 TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

Transport Pub Date : 2022-11-21 DOI:10.3846/transport.2022.17808

Rajko Ković, M. Milenković

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文模拟了项目组合管理(PPM)模型在塞尔维亚铁路现代化项目评估和选择中的应用。根据公司在战略规划过程中确立的战略目标，对所选项目进行绩效考核。项目选择模型在方法上建立为两步选择模型。投资组合项目的数量通过对现代化计划的成功(收益，风险和资源)的重要性进行排名来缩小，然后根据它们对实现先前选择的流动性和可出租性目标的贡献对项目进行排名，这对铁路公司来说一直是一个挑战。采用“专家选择”软件包中嵌入的线性规划数学模型——层次分析法(AHP)对这一选择过程进行了模拟。仿真结果表明，这样可以实现现代化项目实现所需财力的大幅度下降，这也是本文的主要贡献。这证明了PPM概念作为现代战略管理模式应用的有效性。所展示的项目组合选择模型可以在当前的铁路重组过程中找到重要的用途，特别是在公私合作项目的融资中。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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A TWO-STEP APPROACH FOR SELECTION OF RAILWAY MODERNIZATION PROJECTS BASED ON ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS

This paper presents a simulation of the Project Portfolio Management (PPM) model usage in evaluation and selection of modernization projects of Serbian Railways. Performance review of the selected projects is conducted in regards to the strategic goals of the company, which have been established during the process of strategic planning. The project selection model is methodologically set up as a two-step selection model. The number of portfolio projects is narrowed down by ranking their importance in regards to the success of the modernization program (benefits, risks, and resources), which is followed by the ranking of the projects on the basis of their contribution to the realization of previously chosen liquidity and rentability goals, which are always a challenge when it comes to railway companies. This selection procedure is simulated by applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a mathematical model of linear programming, embedded in the software package “Expert Choice”. The simulation results show that, in this way, it is possible to achieve a considerable drop in the amount of necessary financial resources for the realization of modernization projects, which is also the main contribution of this paper. This proves the efficiency of the PPM concept application as a modern model of strategic management. The showcased model of project portfolio selection can find a significant usage among the current processes of railways restructuring, especially in financing of the projects of public–private partnerships.

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来源期刊

Transport Engineering-Mechanical Engineering

CiteScore

3.40

自引率

5.90%

发文量

审稿时长

4 months

期刊介绍： At present, transport is one of the key branches playing a crucial role in the development of economy. Reliable and properly organized transport services are required for a professional performance of industry, construction and agriculture. The public mood and efficiency of work also largely depend on the valuable functions of a carefully chosen transport system. A steady increase in transportation is accompanied by growing demands for a higher quality of transport services and optimum efficiency of transport performance. Currently, joint efforts taken by the transport experts and governing institutions of the country are required to develop and enhance the performance of the national transport system conducting theoretical and empirical research. TRANSPORT is an international peer-reviewed journal covering main aspects of transport and providing a source of information for the engineer and the applied scientist. The journal TRANSPORT publishes articles in the fields of: transport policy; fundamentals of the transport system; technology for carrying passengers and freight using road, railway, inland waterways, sea and air transport; technology for multimodal transportation and logistics; loading technology; roads, railways; airports, ports, transport terminals; traffic safety and environment protection; design, manufacture and exploitation of motor vehicles; pipeline transport; transport energetics; fuels, lubricants and maintenance materials; teamwork of customs and transport; transport information technologies; transport economics and management; transport standards; transport educology and history, etc.