CoViD-19在英国传播和缓解的整体模型:传播率的确定

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2022-11-10 DOI:10.3846/mma.2022.15708

N. Hritonenko, Caroline Satsky, Y. Yatsenko

{"title":"CoViD-19在英国传播和缓解的整体模型:传播率的确定","authors":"N. Hritonenko, Caroline Satsky, Y. Yatsenko","doi":"10.3846/mma.2022.15708","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The integral model with finite memory is employed to analyze the timeline of COVID-19 epidemic in the United Kingdom and government actions to mitigate it. The model uses a realistic infection distribution. The time-varying transmission rate is determined from Volterra integral equation of the first kind. The authors construct and justify an efficient regularization algorithm for finding the transmission rate. The model and algorithm are approbated on the UK data with several waves of COVID-19 and demonstrate a remarkable resemblance between real and simulated dynamics. The timing of government preventive measures and their impact on the epidemic dynamics are discussed.","PeriodicalId":1,"journal":{"name":"Accounts of Chemical Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":16.4000,"publicationDate":"2022-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Integral Model of CoViD-19 spread and Mitigation in UK: identification of Transmission rate\",\"authors\":\"N. Hritonenko, Caroline Satsky, Y. Yatsenko\",\"doi\":\"10.3846/mma.2022.15708\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The integral model with finite memory is employed to analyze the timeline of COVID-19 epidemic in the United Kingdom and government actions to mitigate it. The model uses a realistic infection distribution. The time-varying transmission rate is determined from Volterra integral equation of the first kind. The authors construct and justify an efficient regularization algorithm for finding the transmission rate. The model and algorithm are approbated on the UK data with several waves of COVID-19 and demonstrate a remarkable resemblance between real and simulated dynamics. The timing of government preventive measures and their impact on the epidemic dynamics are discussed.\",\"PeriodicalId\":1,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Accounts of Chemical Research\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":16.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-11-10\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"1\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Accounts of Chemical Research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"100\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.3846/mma.2022.15708\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"化学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Accounts of Chemical Research","FirstCategoryId":"100","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3846/mma.2022.15708","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"化学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

摘要

利用有限记忆积分模型分析了英国新冠肺炎疫情的时间轴和政府缓解疫情的行动。该模型采用了真实的感染分布。时变传输速率由第一类Volterra积分方程确定。作者构造并证明了一种有效的正则化算法来求传输速率。该模型和算法在英国的几波新冠肺炎数据上得到了验证，证明了真实动态和模拟动态之间的惊人相似性。讨论了政府采取预防措施的时机及其对流行病动态的影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

查看原文本刊更多论文

Integral Model of CoViD-19 spread and Mitigation in UK: identification of Transmission rate

The integral model with finite memory is employed to analyze the timeline of COVID-19 epidemic in the United Kingdom and government actions to mitigate it. The model uses a realistic infection distribution. The time-varying transmission rate is determined from Volterra integral equation of the first kind. The authors construct and justify an efficient regularization algorithm for finding the transmission rate. The model and algorithm are approbated on the UK data with several waves of COVID-19 and demonstrate a remarkable resemblance between real and simulated dynamics. The timing of government preventive measures and their impact on the epidemic dynamics are discussed.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.