{"title":"使用冬冬加性方法分析印尼豆豉屋对豆豉产品的需求预测","authors":"Arief Nurdini, Ardhy Lazuardy","doi":"10.56127/ijst.v2i1.854","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Rumah Tempe Indonesia is an MSME engaged in processing soybeans into tempeh products. The production system used is made to stockThis production system can cause problems, including the amount of production that does not match consumer needs, causing a shortage or excess of products which are very inefficient for the company's business continuity. For this reason, a study was carried out to determine the forecast for the demand for GMO Tempe at Indonesian Tempe Houses for the next 12 periods using the Holt-winters method and to determine the accuracy of the forecast made. The method used in this research is the Holt-winter method with the help of Ms. Excel Where. The final result of the research using Holt-winters has a level of forecasting accuracy90.1515344%, which means it is very good at predicting the demand for tempe in the future. Forecasting results in periods 37 to 48 respectively are 13372PCS, 12367PCS, 14196PCS, 12848PCS, 16655PCS, 15965PCS, 18032PCS, 15107PCS, 15132PCS, 17969PCS, 14267PCS, 21498PCS.","PeriodicalId":14145,"journal":{"name":"International journal of engineering science and technology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"ANALYSIS OF DEMAND FORECASTING FOR TEMPEH PRODUCTS AT INDONESIAN TEMPEH HOUSES USING THE HOLT-WINTERS ADDITIVE METHOD APPROACH\",\"authors\":\"Arief Nurdini, Ardhy Lazuardy\",\"doi\":\"10.56127/ijst.v2i1.854\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Rumah Tempe Indonesia is an MSME engaged in processing soybeans into tempeh products. The production system used is made to stockThis production system can cause problems, including the amount of production that does not match consumer needs, causing a shortage or excess of products which are very inefficient for the company's business continuity. For this reason, a study was carried out to determine the forecast for the demand for GMO Tempe at Indonesian Tempe Houses for the next 12 periods using the Holt-winters method and to determine the accuracy of the forecast made. The method used in this research is the Holt-winter method with the help of Ms. Excel Where. The final result of the research using Holt-winters has a level of forecasting accuracy90.1515344%, which means it is very good at predicting the demand for tempe in the future. Forecasting results in periods 37 to 48 respectively are 13372PCS, 12367PCS, 14196PCS, 12848PCS, 16655PCS, 15965PCS, 18032PCS, 15107PCS, 15132PCS, 17969PCS, 14267PCS, 21498PCS.\",\"PeriodicalId\":14145,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"International journal of engineering science and technology\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-03-30\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"International journal of engineering science and technology\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.56127/ijst.v2i1.854\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International journal of engineering science and technology","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.56127/ijst.v2i1.854","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
Rumah Tempe Indonesia是一家从事将大豆加工成豆豉产品的中小微企业。使用的生产系统是为了库存。这种生产系统会导致问题,包括生产数量与消费者需求不匹配,导致产品短缺或过剩,这对公司的业务连续性非常低效。出于这个原因,进行了一项研究,以确定使用霍尔特-温特方法预测未来12个时期印度尼西亚Tempe house对转基因Tempe的需求,并确定预测的准确性。本研究使用的方法是在Ms. Excel Where的帮助下使用Holt-winter方法。使用Holt-winters的最终研究结果具有90.1515344%的预测精度水平,这意味着它非常适合预测未来对tempe的需求。第37 ~ 48期的预测结果分别为13372PCS、12367PCS、14196PCS、12848PCS、16655PCS、15965PCS、18032PCS、15107PCS、15132PCS、17969PCS、14267PCS、21498PCS。
ANALYSIS OF DEMAND FORECASTING FOR TEMPEH PRODUCTS AT INDONESIAN TEMPEH HOUSES USING THE HOLT-WINTERS ADDITIVE METHOD APPROACH
Rumah Tempe Indonesia is an MSME engaged in processing soybeans into tempeh products. The production system used is made to stockThis production system can cause problems, including the amount of production that does not match consumer needs, causing a shortage or excess of products which are very inefficient for the company's business continuity. For this reason, a study was carried out to determine the forecast for the demand for GMO Tempe at Indonesian Tempe Houses for the next 12 periods using the Holt-winters method and to determine the accuracy of the forecast made. The method used in this research is the Holt-winter method with the help of Ms. Excel Where. The final result of the research using Holt-winters has a level of forecasting accuracy90.1515344%, which means it is very good at predicting the demand for tempe in the future. Forecasting results in periods 37 to 48 respectively are 13372PCS, 12367PCS, 14196PCS, 12848PCS, 16655PCS, 15965PCS, 18032PCS, 15107PCS, 15132PCS, 17969PCS, 14267PCS, 21498PCS.