对在孟加拉国推行普遍养恤金计划的实施成本和融资选择的估计

South Asia Economic Journal Pub Date : 2021-03-01 DOI:10.1177/13915614211008102

Mustafiz Rahman, T. I. Khan, Mostafa Amir Sabbih

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引用次数: 0

摘要

预计到2051年，孟加拉国60岁以上的人口将占总人口的20%。人口增长势头使得有必要推行保障该国老年人有保障的生活的政策。目前，孟加拉国超过40%的老年人口(65岁以上)没有领取任何类型的养老金或社会保障福利。在这种背景下，引入全民养老金计划(UPS)是一个值得认真考虑的想法。UPS的理念也与若干可持续发展目标(SDG)目标相一致。本文以国际劳工组织的多支柱养老金模式为基础，分析了在孟加拉国引入UPS的不同情况下所需的资金。该研究估计，从现在到2040年，在孟加拉国引入非缴费式UPS将需要每年平均增加相当于国内生产总值0.1%-0.5%的拨款。文章还估计了融资需求，考虑了两种选择的分担UPS。文章的结论是，孟加拉国的UPS可以在有限的规模上推出，然后可以逐步和分阶段地扩大范围和覆盖范围。文章还强调，UPS的引入将创造机会，使现有的安全网计划合理化，这将为承保UPS提供资金。耶利米:h53, h55, i31, i38

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An Estimation of the Implementation Costs and Financing Options for Introducing a Universal Pension Scheme in Bangladesh

The number of people aged more than 60 in Bangladesh is projected to constitute 20% of total population by 2051. The demographic momentum makes it necessary to pursue policies that guarantee a secured life for the country’s senior citizens. Currently, more than 40% of old age population (more than 65 years) in Bangladesh do not receive any type of pension or social security benefits. In this backdrop, introduction of a universal pension scheme (UPS) is an idea that should merit serious consideration. The idea of a UPS is also aligned with several Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) targets. Based on the International Labour Organization multi-pillar pension model, the article deals with required financing under different scenarios of introducing UPS in Bangladesh. The study estimates that for introducing a non-contributory UPS in Bangladesh, it would require an additional average allocation equivalent to 0.1%–0.5% of gross domestic product per annum between now and 2040. The article also estimates financing needs considering two options for the contributory UPS. The article concludes that UPS in Bangladesh can be launched on a limited scale which then could be expanded in scope and coverage in a gradual and phased manner. The article also underscores that introduction of UPS will create opportunities to rationalize the existing safety net programmes that will release funds for underwriting the UPS. JEL: H53, H55, I31, I38

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来源期刊

South Asia Economic Journal Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (all)

CiteScore

1.10

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The South Asian nations have progressively liberalized their economies in recent years in an effort to integrate with the world economy. They have also taken steps to enhance multilateral and regional economic integration. Even though the South Asian economies have grown at an average rate of more than 5 per cent over the last few years, roughly 40 per cent of their people still live below the poverty line. Hence, the South Asian region continues to face many challenges of economic and social development. The South Asia Economic Journal (SAEJ) is designed as a forum for informed debate on these issues, which are of vital importance to the people of the region who comprise one-sixth of the world’s population. The peer-reviewed journal is devoted to economic analysis and policy options aimed at promoting cooperation among the countries comprising South Asia. It also discusses South Asia’s position on global economic issues, its relations with other regional groupings and its response to global developments. We also welcome contributions to inter-disciplinary analysis on South Asia. As a refereed journal, SAEJ carries articles by scholars, economic commentators,policy-makers and officials, from both the private and public sectors. Our aim is to create a vibrant research space to explore the multidimensional economic issues of concern to scholars working on South Asia. Among the issues debated in relation to South Asia are: - the implications of global economic trends; - the issues and challenges by WTO; - approaches to industrialization and development; - the role of regional institutions such as the SAARC; - the relationship between SAARC and other regional economic groupings such as ASEAN; - the implications of economic liberalization for trade and investment in the region; - new initiatives that can be launched to enhance economic cooperation among the South Asian countries both on a bilateral and a regional basis.