基于混合机器学习方法的生产预测和多相流通过表面扼流圈的影响因素研究

IF 4.2 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS
Waquar Kaleem , Saurabh Tewari , Mrigya Fogat , Dmitriy A. Martyushev
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引用次数: 0

摘要

地面扼流圈是安装在井口的广泛使用的设备,用于控制碳氢化合物的流速。已经提出了几种相关方法来模拟油气通过表层扼流圈的多相流动。然而,由于储层的异质性、各向异性、不同地下深度储层流体特性的差异,以及生产数据的复杂性,估算碳氢化合物流量的经验拟合模型和相关系数存在很大误差。因此,对石油工业而言,估算石油和天然气的日产量仍是一项挑战。最近,有报道称混合数据驱动技术可有效解决石油领域各方面的估算问题。本文研究了混合集合数据驱动方法(即堆叠泛化和投票架构)来预测通过地表卡口的多相流量,然后评估了输入生产控制变量的影响。此外,还在北海碳氢化合物井的生产数据上对机器学习模型进行了单独训练和测试。特征工程学已被恰当地应用于为日产量预测选择最合适的贡献控制变量。本研究按时间顺序解释了解释生产数据所需的数据分析。测试结果表明,堆叠泛化架构的估算性能优于用于产量预测的其他重要范例。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A hybrid machine learning approach based study of production forecasting and factors influencing the multiphase flow through surface chokes

Surface chokes are widely utilized equipment installed on wellheads to control hydrocarbon flow rates. Several correlations have been suggested to model the multiphase flow of oil and gas via surface chokes. However, substantial errors have been reported in empirical fitting models and correlations to estimate hydrocarbon flow because of the reservoir's heterogeneity, anisotropism, variance in reservoir fluid characteristics at diverse subsurface depths, which introduces complexity in production data. Therefore, the estimation of daily oil and gas production rates is still challenging for the petroleum industry. Recently, hybrid data-driven techniques have been reported to be effective for estimation problems in various aspects of the petroleum domain. This paper investigates hybrid ensemble data-driven approaches to forecast multiphase flow rates through the surface choke (viz. stacked generalization and voting architectures), followed by an assessment of the impact of input production control variables. Otherwise, machine learning models are also trained and tested individually on the production data of hydrocarbon wells located in North Sea. Feature engineering has been properly applied to select the most suitable contributing control variables for daily production rate forecasting. This study provides a chronological explanation of the data analytics required for the interpretation of production data. The test results reveal the estimation performance of the stacked generalization architecture has outperformed other significant paradigms considered for production forecasting.

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来源期刊
Petroleum
Petroleum Earth and Planetary Sciences-Geology
CiteScore
9.20
自引率
0.00%
发文量
76
审稿时长
124 days
期刊介绍: Examples of appropriate topical areas that will be considered include the following: 1.comprehensive research on oil and gas reservoir (reservoir geology): -geological basis of oil and gas reservoirs -reservoir geochemistry -reservoir formation mechanism -reservoir identification methods and techniques 2.kinetics of oil and gas basins and analyses of potential oil and gas resources: -fine description factors of hydrocarbon accumulation -mechanism analysis on recovery and dynamic accumulation process -relationship between accumulation factors and the accumulation process -analysis of oil and gas potential resource 3.theories and methods for complex reservoir geophysical prospecting: -geophysical basis of deep geologic structures and background of hydrocarbon occurrence -geophysical prediction of deep and complex reservoirs -physical test analyses and numerical simulations of reservoir rocks -anisotropic medium seismic imaging theory and new technology for multiwave seismic exploration -o theories and methods for reservoir fluid geophysical identification and prediction 4.theories, methods, technology, and design for complex reservoir development: -reservoir percolation theory and application technology -field development theories and methods -theory and technology for enhancing recovery efficiency 5.working liquid for oil and gas wells and reservoir protection technology: -working chemicals and mechanics for oil and gas wells -reservoir protection technology 6.new techniques and technologies for oil and gas drilling and production: -under-balanced drilling/gas drilling -special-track well drilling -cementing and completion of oil and gas wells -engineering safety applications for oil and gas wells -new technology of fracture acidizing
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