{"title":"基于混合机器学习方法的生产预测和多相流通过表面扼流圈的影响因素研究","authors":"Waquar Kaleem , Saurabh Tewari , Mrigya Fogat , Dmitriy A. Martyushev","doi":"10.1016/j.petlm.2023.06.001","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Surface chokes are widely utilized equipment installed on wellheads to control hydrocarbon flow rates. Several correlations have been suggested to model the multiphase flow of oil and gas via surface chokes. However, substantial errors have been reported in empirical fitting models and correlations to estimate hydrocarbon flow because of the reservoir's heterogeneity, anisotropism, variance in reservoir fluid characteristics at diverse subsurface depths, which introduces complexity in production data. Therefore, the estimation of daily oil and gas production rates is still challenging for the petroleum industry. Recently, hybrid data-driven techniques have been reported to be effective for estimation problems in various aspects of the petroleum domain. This paper investigates hybrid ensemble data-driven approaches to forecast multiphase flow rates through the surface choke (viz. stacked generalization and voting architectures), followed by an assessment of the impact of input production control variables. Otherwise, machine learning models are also trained and tested individually on the production data of hydrocarbon wells located in North Sea. Feature engineering has been properly applied to select the most suitable contributing control variables for daily production rate forecasting. This study provides a chronological explanation of the data analytics required for the interpretation of production data. The test results reveal the estimation performance of the stacked generalization architecture has outperformed other significant paradigms considered for production forecasting.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":37433,"journal":{"name":"Petroleum","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2000,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405656123000366/pdfft?md5=bfbc1ac106deb5949c0fb09de0b85ec9&pid=1-s2.0-S2405656123000366-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A hybrid machine learning approach based study of production forecasting and factors influencing the multiphase flow through surface chokes\",\"authors\":\"Waquar Kaleem , Saurabh Tewari , Mrigya Fogat , Dmitriy A. Martyushev\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.petlm.2023.06.001\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>Surface chokes are widely utilized equipment installed on wellheads to control hydrocarbon flow rates. Several correlations have been suggested to model the multiphase flow of oil and gas via surface chokes. However, substantial errors have been reported in empirical fitting models and correlations to estimate hydrocarbon flow because of the reservoir's heterogeneity, anisotropism, variance in reservoir fluid characteristics at diverse subsurface depths, which introduces complexity in production data. Therefore, the estimation of daily oil and gas production rates is still challenging for the petroleum industry. Recently, hybrid data-driven techniques have been reported to be effective for estimation problems in various aspects of the petroleum domain. This paper investigates hybrid ensemble data-driven approaches to forecast multiphase flow rates through the surface choke (viz. stacked generalization and voting architectures), followed by an assessment of the impact of input production control variables. Otherwise, machine learning models are also trained and tested individually on the production data of hydrocarbon wells located in North Sea. Feature engineering has been properly applied to select the most suitable contributing control variables for daily production rate forecasting. This study provides a chronological explanation of the data analytics required for the interpretation of production data. The test results reveal the estimation performance of the stacked generalization architecture has outperformed other significant paradigms considered for production forecasting.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":37433,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Petroleum\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-06-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405656123000366/pdfft?md5=bfbc1ac106deb5949c0fb09de0b85ec9&pid=1-s2.0-S2405656123000366-main.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Petroleum\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1087\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405656123000366\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ENERGY & FUELS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Petroleum","FirstCategoryId":"1087","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405656123000366","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENERGY & FUELS","Score":null,"Total":0}
A hybrid machine learning approach based study of production forecasting and factors influencing the multiphase flow through surface chokes
Surface chokes are widely utilized equipment installed on wellheads to control hydrocarbon flow rates. Several correlations have been suggested to model the multiphase flow of oil and gas via surface chokes. However, substantial errors have been reported in empirical fitting models and correlations to estimate hydrocarbon flow because of the reservoir's heterogeneity, anisotropism, variance in reservoir fluid characteristics at diverse subsurface depths, which introduces complexity in production data. Therefore, the estimation of daily oil and gas production rates is still challenging for the petroleum industry. Recently, hybrid data-driven techniques have been reported to be effective for estimation problems in various aspects of the petroleum domain. This paper investigates hybrid ensemble data-driven approaches to forecast multiphase flow rates through the surface choke (viz. stacked generalization and voting architectures), followed by an assessment of the impact of input production control variables. Otherwise, machine learning models are also trained and tested individually on the production data of hydrocarbon wells located in North Sea. Feature engineering has been properly applied to select the most suitable contributing control variables for daily production rate forecasting. This study provides a chronological explanation of the data analytics required for the interpretation of production data. The test results reveal the estimation performance of the stacked generalization architecture has outperformed other significant paradigms considered for production forecasting.
期刊介绍:
Examples of appropriate topical areas that will be considered include the following: 1.comprehensive research on oil and gas reservoir (reservoir geology): -geological basis of oil and gas reservoirs -reservoir geochemistry -reservoir formation mechanism -reservoir identification methods and techniques 2.kinetics of oil and gas basins and analyses of potential oil and gas resources: -fine description factors of hydrocarbon accumulation -mechanism analysis on recovery and dynamic accumulation process -relationship between accumulation factors and the accumulation process -analysis of oil and gas potential resource 3.theories and methods for complex reservoir geophysical prospecting: -geophysical basis of deep geologic structures and background of hydrocarbon occurrence -geophysical prediction of deep and complex reservoirs -physical test analyses and numerical simulations of reservoir rocks -anisotropic medium seismic imaging theory and new technology for multiwave seismic exploration -o theories and methods for reservoir fluid geophysical identification and prediction 4.theories, methods, technology, and design for complex reservoir development: -reservoir percolation theory and application technology -field development theories and methods -theory and technology for enhancing recovery efficiency 5.working liquid for oil and gas wells and reservoir protection technology: -working chemicals and mechanics for oil and gas wells -reservoir protection technology 6.new techniques and technologies for oil and gas drilling and production: -under-balanced drilling/gas drilling -special-track well drilling -cementing and completion of oil and gas wells -engineering safety applications for oil and gas wells -new technology of fracture acidizing