[Ten-year incidence of high blood pressure in the general population: influence of clinical parameters, and implication for screening strategies].

BACKGROUND International guidelines recommend to modulate the periodicity of hypertension screening according to the initial level of blood pressure (BP). The aim of our study was to evaluate other factors that could be useful to optimise the screening for hypertension. METHODS 9777 normotensive volunteers (4151 men, 5626 women) aged 16 to 68, studied at a 10 year interval during systematic health check ups (standardised questionnaire, clinical examination, biological tests) were included. We determined the 10-year incidence of high BP (systolic BP >or=140 mmHg and/or diastolic BP >or=90 mmHg and/or anti-hypertensive treatment). The role of potential risk factors for hypertension was assessed. RESULTS The 10 year incidence of high BP was 19.9%. It was associated with the initial level of BP (OR=2.02 and 1.81 per +10 mmHg of systolic and diastolic BP, respectively, p<0.0001). Initial age and BMI were strongly associated with the incidence of a high BP (OR=1.88 / + 10 years and 1.18 / + 1 kg/m2, p<0.0001) after adjustment for the initial systolic BP. In men, a low reported physical activity level, alcohol consumption, and current smoking were independent risk factors (Table1). [table: see text] CONCLUSION These results suggest that the recommendations for the screening of hypertension should not be based solely on the initial level of BP.