How Do Successful and Failed Projects Differ? A Socio-Technical Analysis

Software development is at the intersection of the social realm, involving people who develop the software, and the technical realm, involving artifacts (code, docs, etc.) that are being produced. It has been shown that a socio-technical perspective provides rich information about the state of a software project. In particular, we are interested in socio-technical factors that are associated with project success. For this purpose, we frame the task as a network classification problem. We show how a set of heterogeneous networks composed of social and technical entities can be jointly embedded in a single vector space enabling mathematically sound comparisons between distinct software projects. Our approach is specifically designed using intuitive metrics stemming from network analysis and statistics to ease the interpretation of results in the context of software engineering wisdom. Based on a selection of 32 open source projects, we perform an empirical study to validate our approach considering three prediction scenarios to test the classification model’s ability generalizing to (1) randomly held-out project snapshots, (2) future project states, and (3) entirely new projects. Our results provide evidence that a socio-technical perspective is superior to a pure social or technical perspective when it comes to early indicators of future project success. To our surprise, the methodology proposed here even shows evidence of being able to generalize to entirely novel (project hold-out set) software projects reaching predication accuracies of 80%, which is a further testament to the efficacy of our approach and beyond what has been possible so far. In addition, we identify key features that are strongly associated with project success. Our results indicate that even relatively simple socio-technical networks capture highly relevant and interpretable information about the early indicators of future project success.