COVID-19病毒传播的随机模型

IF 1 4区数学

Applied Mathematics-A Journal of Chinese Universities Series B Pub Date : 2021-01-20 DOI:10.4236/AM.2021.121003

Majdi Elhiwi

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引用次数: 2

摘要

新冠肺炎大流行已成为科学、生物和医学研究以及经济和社会科学的巨大挑战。因此，基于传染病建模的数据分析的目标是恢复传染病传播的这些动态，并估计控制这些动态的参数。流行病的随机性导致了随机流行病学模型的发展。本文采用数值格式欧拉、马尔可夫链和敏感-暴露-感染-恢复(SEIR)模型建立了一个随机组合模型。综合SEIR模型被用来预测流行病将如何发展，然后采取相应的行动。这些COVID-19数据来自意大利、俄罗斯、美国和伊朗等几个国家。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Stochastic Model for the Spread of the COVID-19 Virus

The COVID-19 pandemic has become a great challenge to scientific, biological and medical research as well as to economic and social sciences. Hence, the objective of infectious disease modeling-based data analysis is to recover these dynamics of infectious disease spread and to estimate parameters that govern these dynamics. The random aspect of epidemics leads to the development of stochastic epidemiological models. We establish a stochastic combined model using numerical scheme Euler, Markov chain and Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovery (SEIR) model. The combined SEIR model was used to predict how epidemics will develop and then to act accordingly. These COVID-19 data were analyzed from several countries such as Italy, Russia, USA and Iran.

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来源期刊

Applied Mathematics-A Journal of Chinese Universities Series B MATHEMATICS, APPLIED-

自引率

10.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Applied Mathematics promotes the integration of mathematics with other scientific disciplines, expanding its fields of study and promoting the development of relevant interdisciplinary subjects. The journal mainly publishes original research papers that apply mathematical concepts, theories and methods to other subjects such as physics, chemistry, biology, information science, energy, environmental science, economics, and finance. In addition, it also reports the latest developments and trends in which mathematics interacts with other disciplines. Readers include professors and students, professionals in applied mathematics, and engineers at research institutes and in industry. Applied Mathematics - A Journal of Chinese Universities has been an English-language quarterly since 1993. The English edition, abbreviated as Series B, has different contents than this Chinese edition, Series A.