Social Optimism of Russians in a Crisis: Results of a Longitudinal Study

The article considers the main approaches to the study of social optimism as a socio-psychological phenomenon, highlights its theoretical structure and functions. The results of a longitudinal empirical study conducted among adult Russians (N = 664, six measurements) from March 3 to December 26, 2022 and aimed at identifying the socio-psychological antecedents of the stability of social optimism in the conditions of crisis are presented. It is shown that social optimism is directly related to personal characteristics that underlie the resilience: self-efficacy, perceived control, dispositional optimism, positive reframing and seeking emotional support in a critical situation. The study reveals that perceived control increases the stability of the individual's social optimism in a crisis. The higher the social well-being of the individual, the belief in his ability to contribute to the development of society, the more stable is social optimism. The hypothesis is confirmed that social optimism is enhanced by socio-psychological characteristics that facilitate the consolidation of efforts for a joint response to the challenges of the crisis: civic identity; perceived social support; empathy for others affected by the war; generalized trust; trust in civil society institutions; as well as political self-efficacy, that is, the belief in the ability to influence political decisions made in the country. On the contrary, social optimism is negatively associated with belief in a dangerous world, social cynicism, and a conspiracy worldview. The main contribution to the stability of social optimism is made by collective political self-efficacy, while social cynicism accelerates its decline. The results of the study made it possible to suggest the existence of two complementary mechanisms for maintaining social optimism: through strengthening civic identification and the importance of the collective future for the individual (this role is played by moral foundations of respect for authority, loyalty to one’s group and sanctity) and through empathy and strengthening the importance of mutual assistance in a crisis (under the influence of "individualizing" moral foundations of caring for people and fairness).