高维多变化点检测

Pub Date : 2019-10-23 DOI:10.1142/S201032631950014X
Yunlong Wang, Changliang Zou, Zhaojun Wang, G. Yin
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引用次数: 4

摘要

变化点检测是统计建模和估计的重要组成部分。对于高维数据,基于马氏距离的经典方法通常不适用。提出了一种将修正欧几里得距离与极值统计量相结合的检验统计量,其零分布是渐近正态分布。新方法自然地在密集和稀疏变化的检测能力之间取得了平衡,这使其本身具有潜在优于现有方法的优势。在此基础上,采用新的Schwarz信息准则和预筛选程序确定了变化点的数量,并结合目标函数的内在顺序结构,采用动态规划算法估计了变化点的位置。在一些温和的条件下,我们证明了新方法提供了几乎最优速率的一致性估计。仿真研究表明,该方法在功率和估计精度方面具有较好的多变点识别性能,并以两个实际数据实例进行了说明。
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Multiple change-points detection in high dimension
Change-point detection is an integral component of statistical modeling and estimation. For high-dimensional data, classical methods based on the Mahalanobis distance are typically inapplicable. We propose a novel testing statistic by combining a modified Euclidean distance and an extreme statistic, and its null distribution is asymptotically normal. The new method naturally strikes a balance between the detection abilities for both dense and sparse changes, which gives itself an edge to potentially outperform existing methods. Furthermore, the number of change-points is determined by a new Schwarz’s information criterion together with a pre-screening procedure, and the locations of the change-points can be estimated via the dynamic programming algorithm in conjunction with the intrinsic order structure of the objective function. Under some mild conditions, we show that the new method provides consistent estimation with an almost optimal rate. Simulation studies show that the proposed method has satisfactory performance of identifying multiple change-points in terms of power and estimation accuracy, and two real data examples are used for illustration.
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