当前和未来气候下CMIP5模式下澳大利亚-亚洲地区大气河流

IF 3.6 4区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences
Ying Xu, Huqiang Zhang, Yanju Liu, Zhenyu Han, Botao Zhou
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引用次数: 5

摘要

大气河(ARs)作为对流层低层强水汽输送的狭长带,近年来引起了越来越多的科学关注。澳大利亚气象局和中国气象局合作项目的结果显示,基于观测分析,澳大利亚-亚洲季风具有一些独特的AR特征。作为该项目的一部分,本研究侧重于评估全球气候模式在当前气候条件下模拟该地区ARs的技能及其因全球变暖而预估的变化。对17个耦合模式比对项目第5阶段(CMIP5)模式的历史和代表性浓度路径(RCP) 8.5模拟资料进行了1981—2005年和2081—2100年的逐日分析。与欧洲中期天气预报中心era -中期再分析资料的结果相比,这些模式集合结果显示水平水汽输送的显著季节变化,但垂直综合水汽输送(IVT)测量的强度较弱,特别是东亚夏季风。利用基于第85百分位IVT大小及其几何形状的客观AR检测算法,我们发现多模式集合(MME)平均AR发生率与再分析的空间分布和季节变化结果吻合得很好。在RCP8.5全球变暖情景下,模式整体显示水汽输送增强,主要是由于与变暖大气相关的大气湿度增加。因此,他们模拟了在大多数地区,特别是在中国北部和东北部以及澳大利亚南部,增强的频率和更大的增强的规模。然而,MME结果显示,7 / 8月中国南部和东部及其邻近海域的AR频率和规模有所减少。我们将这些结果归因于北太平洋副热带高压(WNPSH)对全球变暖的响应。分析表明,西太平洋副热带气旋西扩导致东亚副热带气旋向内陆转移。在这种情况下,中国东部直接处于西北西北地区的控制之下,这不利于AR的发展和渗透到该地区。我们对A-A季风系统ARs的分析为理解气候变暖条件下季风区的潜在气候变化提供了新的视角。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Atmospheric rivers in the Australia–Asian region under current and future climate in CMIP5 models
Atmospheric rivers (ARs), as long and narrow bands of strong water vapour transport in the lower troposphere, have drawn increasing scientific attention in recent years. Results from a collaborative project between the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and China Meteorological Administration have shown some unique AR characteristics embedded within the Australia–Asian monsoon based on observational analyses. As part of the project, this study focused on assessing the skill of global climate models for simulating ARs in the region under current climate and their projected changes due to global warming. Daily data from 17 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models in their historical and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 simulations were analysed for the periods of 1981–2005 and 2081–2100 respectively. Compared with results derived from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA-interim reanalysis data, these model ensemble results showed significant seasonal variations of horizontal water vapour transport as observed, but their magnitudes measured by vertically integrated water vapour transport (IVT) were weaker, particularly for the East Asian summer monsoon. Using an objective AR detection algorithm based on 85th percentile IVT magnitude and its geometry, we showed that multi-model-ensemble (MME) averaged AR occurrence agreed well with the results derived from the reanalysis for their spatial distributions and seasonal variations. Under the RCP8.5 global warming scenario, the model ensembles, overall, showed an enhanced water vapour transport, primarily due to increased atmospheric humidity associated with a warmed atmosphere. Consequently, they simulated increased AR frequency and bigger AR size in most of the region, particularly over north and northeast China and southern Australia. However, the MME results showed a reduced AR frequency and size in July/August in southern and eastern part of China and its adjacent waters. We attributed these results to the response of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) to global warming. Our analysis showed that westward expansion of WNPSH lead to the shift of ARs more inland in East Asia. In this case, eastern China was directly under the control of WNPSH, which did not favour AR development and penetration into the region. Our analyses of ARs in the A–A monsoon system offers new insight in understanding potential climate changes in the monsoon region under warmed climate.
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来源期刊
Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science
Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science Earth and Planetary Sciences-Oceanography
CiteScore
8.10
自引率
8.30%
发文量
0
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: The Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science (JSHESS) publishes broad areas of research with a distinct emphasis on the Southern Hemisphere. The scope of the Journal encompasses the study of the mean state, variability and change of the atmosphere, oceans, and land surface, including the cryosphere, from hemispheric to regional scales. general circulation of the atmosphere and oceans, climate change and variability , climate impacts, climate modelling , past change in the climate system including palaeoclimate variability, atmospheric dynamics, synoptic meteorology, mesoscale meteorology and severe weather, tropical meteorology, observation systems, remote sensing of atmospheric, oceanic and land surface processes, weather, climate and ocean prediction, atmospheric and oceanic composition and chemistry, physical oceanography, air‐sea interactions, coastal zone processes, hydrology, cryosphere‐atmosphere interactions, land surface‐atmosphere interactions, space weather, including impacts and mitigation on technology, ionospheric, magnetospheric, auroral and space physics, data assimilation applied to the above subject areas . Authors are encouraged to contact the Editor for specific advice on whether the subject matter of a proposed submission is appropriate for the Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science.
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