The Choice of Actor Variables in Agent-Based Cellular Automata Modelling Using Survey Data

This paper considers whether existing approaches for quantifying variables in cellular automata (CA) modelling adequately incorporate all the relevant factors in typical actor decisions underpinning urban development. A survey of developers and planners is used to identify factors they incorporate to allow for or proceed with development, using South East Queensland as a reference region. Three types of decision factors are identified and ranked in order of importance: those that are already modelled in CA applications; those that are not modelled but are quantifiable; and those that are not (easily) quantifiable because they are subjective in nature. Factors identified in the second category include development height/scale, open space supply, and existing infrastructure capacity. Factors identified in the third category include political intent, community opposition, and lifestyle quality. Drawing on our analysis of these factors we suggest how and to what extent survey data might be used to address the challenges of incorporating actor variables into the CA modelling of urban change. The paper represents the first attempt to review what decision factors should be included in CA modelling, and how this might be enabled.