印度-欧盟自由贸易协定及其对印度乳制品行业的潜在影响:定量分析

IF 1.1 Q4 BUSINESS
Anwesha Basu
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引用次数: 2

摘要

本研究试图量化印度-欧盟自由贸易协定对印度乳制品行业的贸易流量、收入和福利的影响。鉴于欧盟是世界上最大的乳制品出口国,而印度的乳制品行业受到高度保护,评估与欧盟自由贸易协定对该行业的潜在影响非常重要。使用部分均衡设置,我们的模拟结果显示,印度乳制品进口的估计增长主要是由贸易创造而不是贸易转移驱动的,这意味着自由贸易协定不会以牺牲贸易集团以外的其他国家为代价来促进低效的乳制品贸易。我们使用重力模型来增加我们的分析,以估计由于贸易自由化而导致乳制品部门进口的潜在增长。PPML的估计表明,关税税率每下降10%,进口价值就会增加3.4%。虽然乳制品进口的估计增长是显著的,但我们的分析表明,以印度国内乳制品产量的一小部分来表示的进口增加值仍将不到1%。JEL代码:F13, F14, F17
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The India–EU FTA and Its Potential Impact on India’s Dairy Sector: A Quantitative Analysis
The present study attempts to quantify ex-ante the impact on trade flows, revenue and welfare of the India–EU FTA on India’s dairy sector. In light of the fact that the EU is the world’s largest exporter of dairy products and India’s dairy sector is highly protected, it is important to assess the potential impact that an FTA with EU can have on this sector. Using a partial equilibrium set-up, our simulation results reveal that the estimated increase in India’s imports of dairy products is mainly driven by trade creation rather than trade diversion, implying that the FTA does not promote inefficient dairy trade at the cost of other countries outside the trade bloc. We augment our analysis using the gravity model to estimate the potential increase in dairy sector imports due to trade liberalisation. PPML estimates suggest that a 10% decline in tariff rates leads to a 3.4% increase in the value of imports. While the estimated increase in dairy imports is significant, our analysis indicates that the increased value of imports, expressed as a fraction of India’s domestic output of dairy products, would still be less than 1%. JEL Codes: F13, F14, F17
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.50
自引率
23.10%
发文量
37
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