不同模型对棕松商品量预测的评价。在杜胡克省

Hanaa Naef Abdulqader, M. Obeyed
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究的主要目的是评估文献中已发表的24个模型的预测能力,这些模型是为估计棕松自然林分的可销售体积而开发的。该估算基于对杜胡克省东部2个自然林分120棵松树(Pinus brutia Ten.)的胸径(D)、树高(h)和绝对形态商(F)的测量。采用校正决定系数(Adjusted coefficient of determination, R2- jj)、估计标准误差(standard error of estimate, SEE)、平均绝对误差(mean absolute error, MAE)、Durbin-Watson统计量(D-W)、p值(p-value)和平均偏倚误差(mean biased error, Bias) 6个Fit检验统计量指标来检验所应用模型的性能。本研究将质心模型的结果作为评价的参考方法。结果表明,平方根-y对数-x模型的性能最好,其次是双平方根模型。根号-y对数-x(公式11)将90%以上的可售体积变化归因于D、h和f的变化,该模型预测的平均绝对误差为0.0434。研究结果表明,粗松的平均茎形为(0.64),为二次抛物面。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
EVALUATIONS OF DIFFERENT MODELS FOR PREDICTING MERCHANTABLE VOLUME OF PINUS BRUTIA TEN. IN DUHOK GOVERNORATE
This study was initiated with the main objective of evaluating the prediction power of previously 24 published models in the literature, developed for estimating the merchantable volume of natural stands of Pinus brutia Ten. The estimation was based on measuring the breast diameter (D), tree height (h), and absolute form quotient (F) of 120 pine trees (Pinus brutia Ten.) from 2 natural stands situated to the east of Duhok governorate. Six indicators of Fit test statistics, namely Adjusted coefficient of determination (R2- adj.) standard error of estimate (SEE), mean absolute error (MAE), Durbin-Watson statistic (D-W), p-value, and mean biased error (Bias) were used to test the performance of the applied models. The result from the centroid model was considered a reference method for the evaluation during this study. The results indicated that the square root –y logarithmic-x offered the highest performance followed by the double square root model.  The square root –y logarithmic-x (equation 11) attributed more than 90% of the variation in merchantable volume to variations in D, h, and F. Furthermore, the mean absolute error of prediction of this model was 0.0434. According to this study, the mean stem form of Pinus brutia trees is (0.64), which signifies quadratic paraboloid.
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