Evaluation of alternative grain stabilization programmes for Nigerian food security

Annual fluctuations in Nigerian grain supplies are large and uncertain. The amelioration of these fluctuations through reserve programmes to achieve reasonable stability is technically feasible.

This paper analyses the effectiveness of two alternative grain reserve programmes in meeting specific stabilization goals in Nigeria. The pattern of deviations in grain supplies served as the basis for analysis of the stabilization potentials of the alternative programmes.

The results show that the alternative programme involving stabilizing international trade is more cost-effective than the one that does not. The use of stabilizing trade would have resulted not only in reduced grain storage capacities but also in an improved rate of capacity utilization as well as substantial annual cost savings in operating reserves. A West African Regional grain reserve programme to backstop national grain reserves would be economically beneficial to Nigeria.