非技术风险对项目进度超支的影响:以澳大利亚上游天然气项目为例

Munmun Basak, V. Coffey, Robert K. Perrons
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引用次数: 1

摘要

非技术风险(NTRs)的复杂性在油气项目的整个生命周期中持续构成严重威胁。现有的研究主要强调内部组织和业务问题,对外部环境因素(经常发现ntr)的关注有限。为了阐明这一日益重要的话题,本文深入探讨了ntr与进度超支之间的复杂关系,并提出了一份排名清单,列出了对澳大利亚上游天然气项目延误影响最大的ntr。通过广泛的文献回顾、与行业专家的访谈和调查来收集数据,以确定相关的ntr。根据这些数据源,开发了一个预测模型,用于评估ntr对上游天然气项目延迟的影响。该调查在直接参与海上和陆上(特别是上游阶段)天然气项目的参与者中进行,他们被要求通过五点Likert量表指出每个NTR发生的频率和严重程度。我们确定了18个ntr,这些ntr分为政治和监管风险、经济/金融风险、社会风险和环境风险,这些风险会对上游天然气项目造成严重挑战。调查结果显示,总体而言,78%的参与者认为ntr在澳大利亚天然气项目的上游阶段比中下游阶段造成更严重的延迟。大约39%的海上项目受访者提到环境问题更为重要,而对于陆上项目,社会风险被认为是主要因素。我们的分析显示了ntr的相对临界性。研究发现,造成重大延误的前五大关键ntr是“油价波动”、“获得土地/使用权的困难”、“监管机构批准的延误”、“社会文化问题”和“环境限制”。Spearman等级相关检验用于显示海上和陆上项目参与者对不同ntr相对临界性的看法高度一致。采用因子分析方法对ntr之间的聚类效应进行了分析,并利用多元回归模型建立了ntr对项目延误影响的预测模型。识别和优先考虑在项目环境中相互作用的关键ntr,从而延迟项目执行,将增加干系人的信心,建立信任和完整性,并提高透明度。通过这种方式,本研究将帮助从业者和决策者预测潜在的延迟,并使他们能够相应地制定计划,以最大限度地减少其对资本项目交付的影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Influence of Non-Technical Risks on Project Schedule Overrun: The Perspective of Upstream Gas Projects in Australia
The complexities of non-technical risks (NTRs) continue to pose serious threats throughout the lifecycle of hydrocarbon projects. Existing studies emphasise mainly internal organisational and operational issues, with a limited focus on factors in the external environment (where NTRs are frequently found). To shine light on this increasingly important topic, this paper provides insight into the complex relationship between NTRs and schedule overruns, and puts forward a ranked list identifying the NTRs that have had the most significant impact on delays in upstream gas projects in Australia. Data was gathered through an extensive literature review, interviews with industry experts, and a survey to identify relevant NTRs. From these data sources, a predictive model was developed for assessing the impact of NTRs on upstream gas project delays. The survey was circulated among participants directly involved in offshore and onshore (particularly the upstream stage) gas projects, who were requested to indicate via five-point Likert scale the frequency of occurrence and severity of each NTR. We identified 18 NTRs categorised into the political and regulatory risks, economic/financial risks, social risks, and environmental risks that cause severe challenges in upstream gas projects. The findings reveal that, overall, 78% of participants believed that NTRs cause more severe delays in the upstream stage than in the mid- and downstream stages of gas projects in Australia. Roughly 39% of respondents from the offshore group mentioned that environmental issues were more significant, whereas for onshore projects, social risks were considered dominant. Our analysis shows the relative criticality of NTRs. The top five critical NTRs causing major delays were found to be ‘fluctuations in oil prices’, ‘difficulty in obtaining land/access right’, ‘delay in approval from regulatory bodies’, ‘socio-cultural issues’, and ‘environmental restrictions’. Spearman’s rank correlation test was used to show a high degree of agreement between offshore and onshore project participants in their perceptions about the relative criticality of different NTRs. Factor analysis was applied to examine the clustering effects among NTRs, and multivariate regression modelling assisted in deriving a predictive model to forecast the influence of NTRs on project delays. Identifying and prioritising critical NTRs that interplay within the project environment, and thereby delay project execution, will increase stakeholder confidence, build trust and integrity, and improve transparency. In this way, this study will help practitioners and decision-makers to anticipate potential delays, and enable them to plan accordingly to minimise their effects on capital project delivery.
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