净零:科学、起源和影响

IF 15.5 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
M. Allen, P. Friedlingstein, C. Girardin, Stuart Jenkins, Y. Malhi, E. Mitchell-Larson, G. Peters, L. Rajamani
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引用次数: 29

摘要

这篇综述解释了推动全球净零排放背后的科学,以及为什么需要这样做来阻止全球气温的持续上升。我们记录了净零二氧化碳(CO2)排放的概念是如何从早期对稳定大气温室气体浓度的关注中出现的。利用耦合气候-碳循环系统的简单概念模型,我们解释了为什么在多年代际时间尺度上,阻止全球变暖需要二氧化碳净零排放和其他气候驱动因素导致的净能量不平衡下降,并引入了重要的概念,包括向恒定强迫的调整速率和向零排放的调整速率。政府间气候变化专门委员会(ipcc)第五次评估报告和《联合国气候变化框架公约》(UNFCCC)结构化专家对话采纳了净零概念,并在2015年《巴黎协定》第4条中达到高潮。此后,越来越多的国家、城市、企业和投资者采用了净零目标。任何实体能够在多大程度上宣称自己实现了净零排放,同时继续依靠明显的减排来补偿正在发生的排放,这是当前有关碳市场和《联合国气候变化框架公约》内外碳补偿的争论的核心。我们认为,这里重要的不是在任何给定时间点的一篮子排放和清除的精确构成,而是净零战略作为一个整体的可持续性及其在几十年时间尺度上对全球温度的影响。持久的、气候中性的净零战略要求在来源(生物源与地质源)和气体寿命方面实现人为温室气体源和汇的对等平衡。《环境与资源年鉴》第47卷的最终在线出版日期预计为2022年10月。修订后的估计数请参阅http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Net Zero: Science, Origins, and Implications
This review explains the science behind the drive for global net zero emissions and why this is needed to halt the ongoing rise in global temperatures. We document how the concept of net zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions emerged from an earlier focus on stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Using simple conceptual models of the coupled climate–carbon cycle system, we explain why approximately net zero CO2 emissions and declining net energy imbalance due to other climate drivers are required to halt global warming on multidecadal timescales, introducing important concepts, including the rate of adjustment to constant forcing and the rate of adjustment to zero emissions. The concept of net zero was taken up through the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Structured Expert Dialogue, culminating in Article 4 of the 2015 Paris Agreement. Increasing numbers of net zero targets have since been adopted by countries, cities, corporations, and investors. The degree to which any entity can claim to have achieved net zero while continuing to rely on distinct removals to compensate for ongoing emissions is at the heart of current debates over carbon markets and offsetting both inside and outside the UNFCCC. We argue that what matters here is not the precise makeup of a basket of emissions and removals at any given point in time, but the sustainability of a net zero strategy as a whole and its implications for global temperature over multidecadal timescales. Durable, climate-neutral net zero strategies require like-for-like balancing of anthropogenic greenhouse gases sources and sinks in terms of both origin (biogenic versus geological) and gas lifetime. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Environment and Resources, Volume 47 is October 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
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来源期刊
Annual Review of Environment and Resources
Annual Review of Environment and Resources 环境科学-环境科学
CiteScore
24.10
自引率
1.80%
发文量
33
审稿时长
>24 weeks
期刊介绍: The Annual Review of Environment and Resources, established in 1976, offers authoritative reviews on key environmental science and engineering topics. It covers various subjects, including ecology, conservation science, water and energy resources, atmosphere, oceans, climate change, agriculture, living resources, and the human dimensions of resource use and global change. The journal's recent transition from gated to open access through Annual Reviews' Subscribe to Open program, with all articles published under a CC BY license, enhances the dissemination of knowledge in the field.
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