全球大规模核电发展战略展望

E. Adamov, V. Rachkov, A. Kashirsky, A. Orlov
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引用次数: 1

摘要

到目前为止,核电和水电提供了全球四分之三的低碳发电。核电自问世以来的60多年里,已累计减少二氧化碳排放600多亿吨。毫无疑问,核电可以在电力部门脱碳方面发挥重要作用,甚至可能是决定性的作用,这一点从一些欧洲国家(尤其是法国)以及美国、俄罗斯和韩国等主要经济大国目前的能源结构中可以明显看出。同样明显的是,在大多数发达经济体,核电已经进入了一个逐渐下降的阶段,新项目几乎没有新的投资,尽管世界迫切需要更多的低碳电力。尽管现有的反应堆及其相应的燃料循环技术已经使全球核电机组的净装机容量达到了400吉瓦,但人们越来越担心,预计欧洲和北美核电厂的关闭规模可能会抵消亚洲市场的新产能增加。从理论上讲,可再生能源可以填补反应堆停产留下的空白,但有强有力的证据表明,风能和太阳能对全球脱碳的潜力受到材料、土地和经济限制的限制。大规模的可再生能源系统还需要大量的能源储存能力,这将阻碍发展中国家能源供应的经济可持续性。考虑到发展核能的潜在利益,一些国家决心通过技术革新和应用旨在改善或彻底解决目前有关经济、环境问题或不扩散核武器的新战略,扩大核能在其能源结构中的份额。当今世界上有许多国家都在追求某种形式的核能发展。少数国家设想利用基于创新反应堆、燃料循环和废物管理技术的真正改变游戏规则的战略扩大或改造其核能系统。本文的重点是对目前在俄罗斯、中国、美国和印度应用的大规模核电开发方法进行概述。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Global outlook on large-scale nuclear power development strategies
As of today, nuclear power together with hydropower provides three-quarters of global low-carbon electricity generation. Over the past 60 years since the time of its inception, the use of nuclear power has reduced CO2 emissions by over 60 gigatonnes. There is no doubt that nuclear power can play a major, and maybe even a decisive role in decarbonizing the electricity sector, as it is evident from the current energy mix of some European countries, especially France, and major economic powers like the Unites States, Russia and South Korea. It is also evident that in most advanced economies nuclear power has entered a phase of gradual decline with little new investment coming into new projects, regardless of the world’s desperate need for more low-carbon electricity. Although existing reactor and their corresponding fuel cycle technologies have enabled the global nuclear power fleet to reach ~ 400 GWe of net installed capacity, there is growing concern that the scale of NPP shutdowns expected in Europe and North America could offset new capacity additions in Asian markets. Theoretically, renewable energy could fill the void left by reactors taken offline but there is strong evidence that the potential of wind and solar for global decarbonization is limited by material, land and economic constraints. Large-scale renewable systems would also require massive energy storage capacity that would hamper economic sustainability of the energy supply for developing countries. Taking into account the potential benefits of developing nuclear power, some countries are determined to expand its share in their energy mix through technological innovation and application of new strategies, directed at improving or completely resolving current issues related to economics, environmental concerns or non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. There are many states in the world today pursuing some sort of nuclear power development. A limited number of countries envision expanding or transforming their nuclear energy system using truly game-changing strategies based on innovative reactor, fuel cycle and waste management technologies. The focus of this paper is to give an overview of the approaches to large-scale nuclear power development being applied today in Russia, China, USA and India.
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