考虑预测不确定性的新能源跨省日前-日内调度方法

Zhi Cai, Yuxuan Li, Dan Xu, Guofang Zhang, Lun Tang, Xiaming Guo
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引用次数: 2

摘要

日前阶段的新能源电量预测值与实际值普遍存在较大误差,可能会因省电网日内储备不足而导致风电和光伏的弃电。为此,本文提出了考虑新能源预测不确定性的多时间尺度多省日内协调调度模型:考虑新能源预测在日前阶段可能出现的误差,建立了多省稳健的机组承诺模型,为新能源消费提供充足的储备;根据新能源超短期预测数据,调整并线调度和日内阶段机组出力,建立考虑并线潮流控制的日内调度模型。将该模型应用于中国某地区的实际计算实例,结果表明该模型能够发挥互联电网的互助性,有效提高新能源消费水平。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Cross-provincial Day-ahead to Intra-day Scheduling Method Considering Forecasting Uncertainty of New Energy
There are generally large errors between forecast and actual values of new energy power in the dayahead stage, which may cause curtailment of wind power and photovoltaic power due to the insufficient reserve of provincial power grids in the intra-day stage. Therefore, multi-time scale multi-province coordinative day-ahead and intra-day scheduling model considering the uncertainty of new energy prediction is proposed in this paper: Considering the possible errors of new energy prediction in the day-ahead stage, a multi-provincial robust unit commitment model is established to provide sufficient reserves for new energy consumption; the tie-line scheduling and unit output in the intra-day stage according to ultra-short-term predicted data of new energy is adjusted to establish an intra-day scheduling model considering tie-line power flow control. The proposed model is applied to the actual calculation example in a certain region of China, the results of which show that the model can give play to the mutual aid of interconnected power grids and effectively improve the consumption level of new energy.
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