An approach to modeling regional effects in the implementation of air transport infrastructure projects

Aim. The presented study aims to describe the elements of the assessment of the cumulative regional effect from projects for the development of transport and related sectors of the economy of the Russian Federation.Tasks. The authors investigate the dynamics of changes in passenger traffic in the Far Eastern region through the example of Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk Airport; identify the growth areas of air transport; explore the possibility of regional development based on investment in tourism business; propose an approach to assessing the cumulative regional effect from projects for the development of transport and related sectors of the region’s economy.Methods. This study uses well-known methods for evaluating composite, sectoral, and multiplicative effects. The proposed approach is based on the formation of a cumulative regional effect with allowance for the advantages of the examined methods and the method of direct calculation of the generated effects.Results. Development trends and dynamics of passenger traffic in the Far East are determined through the example of Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk Airport, along with the dynamics and current trends of air traffic (including routes to China) in the context of external factors. Opportunities for the development of tourist routes between China and Russia and the need to establish tourist business in the Far East are identified. An approach is proposed to describe the cumulative regional effect from projects for the development of aviation and tourism infrastructure in the region, which in the future can serve as a basis for the development of an appropriate methodology for calculating the effects.Conclusions. The results of the study can be used to create a methodology for assessing the cumulative regional effects from projects for the development of transportation and related sectors of the economy based on multiplicative effects.