基于BP神经网络的空调能耗预测及各列优化综合算法

Dingwen Cai, Pei-yong Duan, Jun-qing Li
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引用次数: 0

摘要

智慧城市建设与建筑能耗数据分析密切相关,能耗预测有助于指导城市电力调度策略。一般来说,用于能耗预测的人工神经网络模型往往是基于单个网络的优化,存在泛化能力差、拟合精度不稳定等缺点。因此,为了提高BP神经网络在建筑空调能耗预测中的性能,本文构建了逐列优化预测模型。为了避免陷入局部最小值,引入遗传算法和粒子群优化算法对基本BP神经网络的权值和阈值进行优化,以避免参数的随机性。然后,为了提高模型的可靠性和预测精度,在基于优化算法的BP模型预测值的基础上,识别出最优预测值。此外,本文还对莱西市某建筑的实际空调能耗进行了实验研究,实验结果表明了该模型的优越性。预测精度提高了79%左右,算法的可靠性也得到了提高。从长远来看,该模型可以为城市电力调度提供超前预测,有助于智慧城市的建设。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Prediction of Air Conditioning Energy Consumption Based on BP Neural Networks with an Each-Column Optimization Synthesis Algorithm
Smart city construction is closely related to building energy consumption data analysis, and energy consumption prediction is helpful to guide urban power dispatching strategy. In general, the artificial neural network models used for energy consumption prediction are often based on the optimization of a single network, which has some shortcomings such as poor generalization ability and unstable fitting accuracy. Therefore, in order to improve the performance of BP neural network in building air conditioning energy consumption prediction, a per-column optimization prediction model is constructed in this paper. In order to avoid falling into the local minimum, genetic algorithm and particle swarm optimization algorithm are introduced to optimize the weight and threshold of the basic BP neural network to avoid the randomness of the parameters. Then, in order to improve the reliability and prediction accuracy of the model, the optimal prediction value is identified on the basis of the BP model prediction value based on the optimization algorithm. In addition, this paper makes an experimental study on the real air-conditioning energy consumption of a building in Laixi City, and the experimental results show the superiority of the model. The prediction accuracy is improved by about 79%, and the reliability of the algorithm is also improved. In the long run, the model can provide advance prediction for urban power dispatching and contribute to the construction of smart cities.
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