{"title":"宏观政策制定中前瞻和后见之明的收益(和成本)","authors":"Nigel Stapledon","doi":"10.22459/AG.18.01.2011.05","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This paper looks at the difficulties for fiscal and monetary policy posed by the inherent uncertainty of the economic outlook. It contrasts the excessive optimism of policymakers in the approach to the 1989-91 recession with the excessive pessimism of the outlook in Australia in 2008.","PeriodicalId":41700,"journal":{"name":"Agenda-A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform","volume":"2014 1","pages":"41-52"},"PeriodicalIF":0.1000,"publicationDate":"2011-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The Benefits (and Costs) of Foresight and Hindsight in Macro Policy Formulation\",\"authors\":\"Nigel Stapledon\",\"doi\":\"10.22459/AG.18.01.2011.05\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"This paper looks at the difficulties for fiscal and monetary policy posed by the inherent uncertainty of the economic outlook. It contrasts the excessive optimism of policymakers in the approach to the 1989-91 recession with the excessive pessimism of the outlook in Australia in 2008.\",\"PeriodicalId\":41700,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Agenda-A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform\",\"volume\":\"2014 1\",\"pages\":\"41-52\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.1000,\"publicationDate\":\"2011-04-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"2\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Agenda-A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.22459/AG.18.01.2011.05\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Agenda-A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.22459/AG.18.01.2011.05","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
The Benefits (and Costs) of Foresight and Hindsight in Macro Policy Formulation
This paper looks at the difficulties for fiscal and monetary policy posed by the inherent uncertainty of the economic outlook. It contrasts the excessive optimism of policymakers in the approach to the 1989-91 recession with the excessive pessimism of the outlook in Australia in 2008.
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