乌克兰危机与战争中的区域可持续发展模型

IF 1 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q4 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES
O. Shevchuk, O. Ilyash, G. Mazhara, N. Roshchyna, S. Hrynkevych, R. Lavrov, S. Kozlovskyi
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引用次数: 6

摘要

本文调查了全球经济衰退导致乌克兰经济出现的不可抗力危机因素的影响,2014-2021年的事件(吞并克里米亚,暂时占领顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克地区的部分工业领土,顿巴斯的军事行动,抗击流行病(COVID-19)期间,2022年的战争对地区稳定发展的影响。根据对乌克兰国家统计局官方指标的分析,证明上述因素造成额外的乘数和加速效应,在危机条件下对区域生产总值的动态产生不利影响。已经确定,这些影响的结果是将危机信号从主动阶段转变为主动阶段。通过构建GRP相关指标热图,可以确定区域经济与社会发展之间是否存在不平衡。建立线性回归模型,使我们能够得出危机和战争期间GRP地区存在不平衡的结论。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Modeling Regional Sustainable Development in Ukrainian Crisis and War
The article investigates the impact of force majeure crisis factors that appeared in the Ukrainian economy as a result of the global recession, the events of 2014-2021 (annexation of Crimea, temporary occupation of part of the industrial territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, military operations in Donbas, during the fight against pandemic (COVID-19), war in 2022 on the stable development of regions. Based on the analysis of official indicators of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, it was proved that the said factors create additional multiplier and acceleration effects that adversely affect the dynamics of the gross regional product in the crisis conditions. It has been determined that the result of these effects is the transformation of crisis signals from a proactive to an active phase. The construction of a heat map of GRP correlation indicators made it possible to determine the existence of a disbalance between the economic and social development of the regions. Building a model of linear regression, allowed us to draw conclusions about the existing disbalance of GRP regions during the crisis and war.
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来源期刊
Problemy Ekorozwoju
Problemy Ekorozwoju ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES-
CiteScore
2.50
自引率
18.20%
发文量
55
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