Autonomous Vehicles Still Decades Away: 2019

The automotive industry, once predicting the arrival of fully autonomous vehicles by 2020, has backed down from such optimism as industry experts recognize the difficulties of bringing level 5 automation into the hands of consumers. This paper will first introduce the stages of automation defined by the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE International). Secondly, it will examine the challenges required to progress from existing advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) to level 4 and 5 autonomous vehicles. This section will focus on the need for higher precision sensors and software standards as well as the development of cognitive functions such as perception in existing software to navigate daily traffic patterns encountered by human drivers. The inability of current AI technologies to accomplish such a feat will then be discussed. Next, assuming automakers successfully develop the necessary technologies for autonomous vehicles, difficulties of testing the safety of such vehicles will be addressed. This paper will conclude with a discussion of the dangers of releasing level 3 autopilot systems to consumers.