非正式部门在GDP中的作用:一种面板估计方法

N. Kansara, G. Basak, P. Das
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引用次数: 0

摘要

对一个经济体中非正规部门活动的估计对于获得对国内生产总值的正确估计是一个严重的问题。之所以会出现这种情况,是因为非正规部门的活动没有登记。文献试图用潜在变量的方法来解决非正式部门的估计问题。标准方法通常是针对单个点进行估计。本文旨在对许多国家在一个共同框架下的非正式部门的统计估计和非正式部门随时间的演变进行建模。因此,本文采用的方法是对来自发达国家和发展中国家的22个国家进行小组估计。该研究通过开发统计模型“面板动态多指标和多原因”模型来解释非正式部门贡献的变化,从而在文献中做出贡献。利用统计模型,本文给出了1990年至2018年期间这些国家非正式部门的修正估计。我们对非正规部门的估计普遍较高,发展中国家的估计有时超过10%,而发达国家的估计几乎没有变化。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Informal Sector in GDP: A Panel Estimation Method
Estimation of the activities of the informal sector in an economy poses a serious problem for obtaining a correct estimate of GDP. This happens to be so because of the fact that informal sector activities are not registered. The literature has tried to solve the problem of estimation of the informal sector using the method of latent variables. The standard approach is generally aims to estimate for a single point. The present paper aims to model the statistical estimation of informal sector of many countries in a common framework and the evolution of the informal sector over time. Thus the adopted approach in this paper is panel estimation for a group of 22 countries, both from the developed and developing world. The study contributes in the literature by way of developing statistical model ‘Panel Dynamic Multiple Indicators and Multiple Causes’ model to account for the variations in the contribution of informal sector. Using the statistical model the paper presents modified estimates of the informal sector of the group of countries over a period ranging from 1990 through 2018. Our estimates of the informal sector are found to be generally higher, sometimes more than 10% for the developing country group while the estimates for the developed countries show little variability.
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