E-grocery of tomorrow: home delivery of food between profitability, customer acceptance and ecological footprint

In this article, we present simulation results on the environmental impact of stationary grocery shopping and home delivery in terms of CO2 emissions in four representative city districts in Hanover. Input parameters and comparison variables are based on a comprehensive literature review on grocery shopping behaviour, e-grocery delivery terms and framework conditions in Germany, while several usage scenarios aid in reproducing a realistic system set-up, ultimately allowing to quantify the CO2 emission reduction potential through the implementation/amplification of e-grocery home delivery strategies. In order to assess and quantify the respective ecological impact of different grocery shopping activities, we developed a sophisticated agent-based simulation model. Depending on the individual behavioural scenario, multiple simulation runs employing centralised shipping of e-grocery orders from a food fulfilment centre into a metropolitan area like Hanover have yielded that e-grocery can cause up to 11% less CO2 emissions. Nevertheless, to be able to achieve significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in different behavioural settings, system-level innovations and more efficient delivery concepts are required.