Projected changes in the number of inhabitants of Latvia in the event of the stabilization of emigration

The decline in population is a significant problem for Latvia, the causes and consequences of which have been brought to the attention of many researchers. The aim of this study is to perform a mathematical analysis of the population and the main components of its changes at the national level to evaluate the use of these indicators in the estimation of population changes. The methods of this research are based on data regression analysis. The statistical analysis of this work uses the data of the Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia. The study also utilised Statistical Office of the European Union (Eurostat) population projections at the national level. The results of this research are based on data regression analysis. Although linear regression models evaluate changes in the population of Latvia and show very strong correlation, they must be treated critically. The population migration balance is not predictable based on historical observations and/or by using mathematical models. In migration balance forecast models that are based on mathematical statistical methods, the uncertainty is so great that the practical value of such models is negligible.