Model of the linkage between land cover changes to water discharge and food productivity: The case of the Konaweha watershed in Indonesia

Changes in watershed land cover have an impact on reducing water discharge, as well as other derivative impacts such as the productivity of food crops, horticulture, and plantations. This study tries to offer a conceptual model of the effect of changes in watershed land cover, water discharge, and food productivity through food crops, horticultural crops, and plantation crops. This study uses a quantitative approach based on time series data between 2002 and 2021. Data is analyzed using a structural model approach with SEM-SmartPLS software. As a result, changes in land cover have a significant effect on water discharge, but they have no effect on food productivity. Water discharge has a significant effect on food production, and changes in land cover greatly affect food productivity through the role of intermediary variables (mediation) of water discharge. In 2041, changes in land cover can reduce water discharge by around 47.9%. Then the water discharge is estimated to have an impact on the productivity of food crops by 62.3%, vegetable productivity by around 45.7%, and plantation crop productivity by around 72.7%.