{"title":"预测比CUSUM (PRC):一种贝叶斯方法在短期运行在线变化点检测中的应用","authors":"Konstantinos Bourazas, F. Sobas, P. Tsiamyrtzis","doi":"10.1080/00224065.2022.2161434","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The online quality monitoring of a process with low volume data is a very challenging task and the attention is most often placed in detecting when some of the underline (unknown) process parameter(s) experience a persistent shift. Self-starting methods, both in the frequentist and the Bayesian domain aim to offer a solution. Adopting the latter perspective, we propose a general closed-form Bayesian scheme, where the testing procedure is built on a memory-based control chart that relies on the cumulative ratios of sequentially updated predictive distributions. The theoretic framework can accommodate any likelihood from the regular exponential family and the use of conjugate analysis allows closed form modeling. Power priors will offer the axiomatic framework to incorporate into the model different sources of information, when available. A simulation study evaluates the performance against competitors and examines aspects of prior sensitivity. Technical details and algorithms are provided as supplementary material.","PeriodicalId":54769,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Quality Technology","volume":"67 1","pages":"391 - 403"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6000,"publicationDate":"2023-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Predictive ratio CUSUM (PRC): A Bayesian approach in online change point detection of short runs\",\"authors\":\"Konstantinos Bourazas, F. Sobas, P. Tsiamyrtzis\",\"doi\":\"10.1080/00224065.2022.2161434\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Abstract The online quality monitoring of a process with low volume data is a very challenging task and the attention is most often placed in detecting when some of the underline (unknown) process parameter(s) experience a persistent shift. Self-starting methods, both in the frequentist and the Bayesian domain aim to offer a solution. Adopting the latter perspective, we propose a general closed-form Bayesian scheme, where the testing procedure is built on a memory-based control chart that relies on the cumulative ratios of sequentially updated predictive distributions. The theoretic framework can accommodate any likelihood from the regular exponential family and the use of conjugate analysis allows closed form modeling. Power priors will offer the axiomatic framework to incorporate into the model different sources of information, when available. A simulation study evaluates the performance against competitors and examines aspects of prior sensitivity. Technical details and algorithms are provided as supplementary material.\",\"PeriodicalId\":54769,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Quality Technology\",\"volume\":\"67 1\",\"pages\":\"391 - 403\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-01-27\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"1\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Quality Technology\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"5\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1080/00224065.2022.2161434\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"工程技术\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Quality Technology","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00224065.2022.2161434","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
Predictive ratio CUSUM (PRC): A Bayesian approach in online change point detection of short runs
Abstract The online quality monitoring of a process with low volume data is a very challenging task and the attention is most often placed in detecting when some of the underline (unknown) process parameter(s) experience a persistent shift. Self-starting methods, both in the frequentist and the Bayesian domain aim to offer a solution. Adopting the latter perspective, we propose a general closed-form Bayesian scheme, where the testing procedure is built on a memory-based control chart that relies on the cumulative ratios of sequentially updated predictive distributions. The theoretic framework can accommodate any likelihood from the regular exponential family and the use of conjugate analysis allows closed form modeling. Power priors will offer the axiomatic framework to incorporate into the model different sources of information, when available. A simulation study evaluates the performance against competitors and examines aspects of prior sensitivity. Technical details and algorithms are provided as supplementary material.
期刊介绍:
The objective of Journal of Quality Technology is to contribute to the technical advancement of the field of quality technology by publishing papers that emphasize the practical applicability of new techniques, instructive examples of the operation of existing techniques and results of historical researches. Expository, review, and tutorial papers are also acceptable if they are written in a style suitable for practicing engineers.
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