全球干散货市场与中国集装箱市场同步分析

Journal of Korean navigation and port research Pub Date : 2017-02-28 DOI:10.5394/KINPR.2017.41.1.25

Hyunsok Kim, Myung-Hee Chang

{"title":"全球干散货市场与中国集装箱市场同步分析","authors":"Hyunsok Kim, Myung-Hee Chang","doi":"10.5394/KINPR.2017.41.1.25","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":": Thepurposeofthisinvestigationistoanalyzethesynchronizationbetweentherepresentativeglobalfreightindex,theBaltic DrybulkIndex(BDI)andtheChinaContainerFreightIndex(CCFI)withmonthlydatafrom2000to2016.Usingthenon-stationarity ofthebusinesscyclethatisabletoincludecommontrends, weemploytheEngle-Granger2stageco-integrationtestandfoundno synchronization.Onthecontrary,weadditionallyestimatedthecausalitybetweenthemarketsandrevealedthecausality,whichimplies thattheChineseeconomyhasasignificanteffectontheglobalmarket.TheresultsofthisempiricalanalysisdemonstratethattheCCFI ofChinaisappropriateforanalyzingtheshippingindustry.Inpractice,thismeansthatitismoreappropriatetoincludeCCFI inthe globalmarketoutlookthanuseitasasubstitutefortheglobalfreightrateindex,theBDI.Thisisacasestudyofthesynchronization oftheeconomicfluctuationsoftheshippingindustry.ItsuggeststhattheeconomicfluctuationsofChinaneedtobeconsideredinthe unstable globalmarketforecast.Inparticular, thiscaseappliestothe fluctuationsintheshippingindustrysynchronismandprovides importantresultsinscientificterms.","PeriodicalId":16242,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Korean navigation and port research","volume":"39 1","pages":"25-32"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2017-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Analysis of the Synchronization between Global Dry Bulk Market and Chinese Container Market\",\"authors\":\"Hyunsok Kim, Myung-Hee Chang\",\"doi\":\"10.5394/KINPR.2017.41.1.25\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\": Thepurposeofthisinvestigationistoanalyzethesynchronizationbetweentherepresentativeglobalfreightindex,theBaltic DrybulkIndex(BDI)andtheChinaContainerFreightIndex(CCFI)withmonthlydatafrom2000to2016.Usingthenon-stationarity ofthebusinesscyclethatisabletoincludecommontrends, weemploytheEngle-Granger2stageco-integrationtestandfoundno synchronization.Onthecontrary,weadditionallyestimatedthecausalitybetweenthemarketsandrevealedthecausality,whichimplies thattheChineseeconomyhasasignificanteffectontheglobalmarket.TheresultsofthisempiricalanalysisdemonstratethattheCCFI ofChinaisappropriateforanalyzingtheshippingindustry.Inpractice,thismeansthatitismoreappropriatetoincludeCCFI inthe globalmarketoutlookthanuseitasasubstitutefortheglobalfreightrateindex,theBDI.Thisisacasestudyofthesynchronization oftheeconomicfluctuationsoftheshippingindustry.ItsuggeststhattheeconomicfluctuationsofChinaneedtobeconsideredinthe unstable globalmarketforecast.Inparticular, thiscaseappliestothe fluctuationsintheshippingindustrysynchronismandprovides importantresultsinscientificterms.\",\"PeriodicalId\":16242,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Korean navigation and port research\",\"volume\":\"39 1\",\"pages\":\"25-32\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2017-02-28\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"2\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Korean navigation and port research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.5394/KINPR.2017.41.1.25\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Korean navigation and port research","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.5394/KINPR.2017.41.1.25","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

摘要

本调查的目的是分析现有的全球运价指数、波罗的海干散货指数(BDI)和中国集装箱运价指数(CCFI)与2000年至2016年月度数据之间的同步。利用商业周期的非平稳性，我们采用了engle - granger2阶段生态集成标准，发现没有同步。Onthecontrary、weadditionallyestimatedthecausalitybetweenthemarketsandrevealedthecausality whichimplies thattheChineseeconomyhasasignificanteffectontheglobalmarket。TheresultsofthisempiricalanalysisdemonstratethattheCCFI ofChinaisappropriateforanalyzingtheshippingindustry。实际上，这意味着将ecfi纳入全球市场前景比将其作为全球货运指数(bdi)的替代品更为合适。Thisisacasestudyofthesynchronization oftheeconomicfluctuationsoftheshippingindustry。这表明，在不稳定的全球市场预测中，需要考虑中国经济的波动。该案例特别适用于航运业的同步性波动，提供了重要的科学结论。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

查看原文本刊更多论文

Analysis of the Synchronization between Global Dry Bulk Market and Chinese Container Market

: Thepurposeofthisinvestigationistoanalyzethesynchronizationbetweentherepresentativeglobalfreightindex,theBaltic DrybulkIndex(BDI)andtheChinaContainerFreightIndex(CCFI)withmonthlydatafrom2000to2016.Usingthenon-stationarity ofthebusinesscyclethatisabletoincludecommontrends, weemploytheEngle-Granger2stageco-integrationtestandfoundno synchronization.Onthecontrary,weadditionallyestimatedthecausalitybetweenthemarketsandrevealedthecausality,whichimplies thattheChineseeconomyhasasignificanteffectontheglobalmarket.TheresultsofthisempiricalanalysisdemonstratethattheCCFI ofChinaisappropriateforanalyzingtheshippingindustry.Inpractice,thismeansthatitismoreappropriatetoincludeCCFI inthe globalmarketoutlookthanuseitasasubstitutefortheglobalfreightrateindex,theBDI.Thisisacasestudyofthesynchronization oftheeconomicfluctuationsoftheshippingindustry.ItsuggeststhattheeconomicfluctuationsofChinaneedtobeconsideredinthe unstable globalmarketforecast.Inparticular, thiscaseappliestothe fluctuationsintheshippingindustrysynchronismandprovides importantresultsinscientificterms.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

Journal of Korean navigation and port research

自引率

0.00%

发文量