Development of reservoir operation rules using seasonal climate forecasts

ABSTRACT This study verified the suitability of using precipitation forecasts in defining operation rules for the Cruzeta reservoir in Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. The operation rules were developed through reservoir operation simulation–optimization, using a genetic algorithm. The performance indicators were analyzed in five operation scenarios: standard operating policy (SOP), current reservoir rationing rule (C), rationing without forecast (R), rationing with forecast (RF), and rationing with perfect forecast (RPF). The SOP scenario better met the total demand but made the system very susceptible to supply collapse. The results of the RF and RPF scenarios showed better compliance with the priority demands and the total demand during the dry periods. Changing from RF to RPF scenario, there is a small improvement in the evaluation indexes. The use of rules integrating the seasonal weather forecast is thus recommended.