Political party affiliation strength and protest participation propensity: theory and evidence from Africa

ABSTRACT The confluence of political party polarization, interparty conflict, and contentious politics is nearly a universal axiom in Africa. Although the reasons for parties to protest and rally are many, pinpointing who actually participates is rather tricky. Building on previous literature regarding the influential power of political parties on member behaviour, this study proposes political party affiliation strength as metric for identifying whom within political parties is more and less likely to participate in in-person political protests and rallies. Using data on Kenya, Nigeria, and Tunisia, this study finds strong supporting evidence that party affiliation strength effects protest participation propensity mediated by party-government linkages. Those strongly affiliated to political parties that enjoy majority power in government are less likely to protest, and strong affiliates of non-majority power-holding parties are more likely to protest. Preliminary evidence presented here also demonstrates those with non-political party affiliation are significantly more likely to post online about political issues rather than participate in in-person contentious politics. This study’s findings help further bridge the gap between individual political psychology and macro-level political behaviour.