aprires -ski:冠状病毒从以色列传播到德国

IF 1.2 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

German Economic Review Pub Date : 2021-06-22 DOI:10.1515/ger-2020-0063

Gabriel Felbermayr, Julian Hinz, Sonali Chowdhry

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引用次数: 40

摘要

在德国经历的第一波SARS-CoV-2感染中，奥地利滑雪胜地Ischgl通常被认为是传播的起点。根据401个德国县的数据，我们发现，在地理纬度和卫生当局的检测行为的条件下，到Ischgl的道路距离确实是感染病例的重要预测指标，但与预期一致，不是死亡率的预测指标。如果德国所有县都像前波莫恩-雷根州最遥远的县那样远离伊斯切尔，德国的COVID-19病例将减少45%左右。一个简单的扩散模型预测，当县间和县内的流动性不受限制时，到ischgl的距离弹性的绝对值应该随时间下降。我们检验了这一假设，并得出结论:德国的封锁措施已经阻止了病毒的传播。

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Après-ski: The spread of coronavirus from Ischgl through Germany

Abstract The Austrian ski resort of Ischgl is commonly claimed to be ground zero for the diffusion of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the first wave of infections experienced by Germany. Drawing on data for 401 German counties, we find that conditional on geographical latitude and testing behavior by health authorities, road distance to Ischgl is indeed an important predictor of infection cases, but – in line with expectations – not of fatality rates. Were all German counties located as far from Ischgl as the most distant county of Vorpommern-Rügen, Germany would have seen about 45 % fewer COVID-19 cases. A simple diffusion model predicts that the absolute value of the distance-to-Ischgl elasticity should fall over time when inter- and intra-county mobility are unrestricted. We test this hypothesis and conclude that the German lockdown measures have halted the spread of the virus.

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来源期刊

German Economic Review ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

2.30

自引率

9.10%

发文量

期刊介绍： German Economic Review, the official publication of the German Economic Association (Verein für Socialpolitik), is an international journal publishing original and rigorous research of general interest in a broad range of economic disciplines, including: - macro- and microeconomics - economic policy - international economics - public economics - finance - business administration The scope of research approaches includes theoretical, empirical and experimental work. Innovative and thought-provoking contributions, in particular from younger authors, are especially welcome.