摇摇欲坠的“楔子”:美国“印太”战略下印度的战略行为分析

Lian Bo
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摘要

美国的印太战略本质上是亚太战略与印度战略的结合:通过巩固战略联盟,深化与亚太盟友的关系;通过“楔入战略”,将印度拉入自己的轨道,成为架起地区桥梁的战略“支点”。印度是不结盟运动的关键成员和领导者,同时之前还与苏联形成了“准联盟”。当前,中国对美国印太战略的回应是谨慎主动。从一个针对-à-vis楔形战略的国家的有利地位来看,印度的战略行为是由战略环境、其主要战略目标以及在独特战略环境背景下的盟国关系所决定的。本文将战略环境分为两类:一般战略环境和专门战略环境;它进一步将主要战略目标确定为经济发展、主权完整和独立、国家安全和大国地位(特别是相对于地区或全球大国);同时,联盟关系是根据国家利益之间的分歧程度和国家对-à-vis联盟自主行动的能力来定义的。本文通过对印度外交经验的分析,认为在美国“印太”战略背景下,在失去总体战略环境的背景下,实现大国地位的首要战略目标和“巨大的利益分歧和自主行动的大空间”塑造了印度在同盟关系上的谨慎主动。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A Shaky “Wedge”: An Analysis of India’s Strategic Behavior under the US “Indo-Pacific” Strategy
America’s Indo-Pacific strategy is essentially a combination of its Asia-Pacific and Indian strategies: through the consolidation of its strategic alliances, it can deepen its relations with Asia-Pacific allies, and through its “wedging strategy” it can pull India into its orbit to become a strategic “fulcrum” bridging the region. India was both a key member and leader of the non-aligned movement, while also previously forming a “quasi-alliance” with the Soviet Union. At present, it has responded to the US Indo-Pacific strategy with cautious initiative. From the vantage point of a state targeted vis-à-vis a wedging strategy, India’s strategic behavior is shaped by the strategic environment, its primary strategic objectives, and the relations between allies within the context of a unique strategic environment. This paper identifies two types of strategic environments: the general strategic environment and the specialized strategic environment; it further identifies primary strategic objectives as economic development, sovereign integrity and independence, national security and great state status (especially with respect to that of regional or global major powers); meanwhile, the alliance relationship is defined according to the extent to which there are divisions across state interests and the capacity of states to act autonomously vis-à-vis the alliance. Through an analysis of India’s diplomatic experiences, this paper argues that against the backdrop of America’s “Indo-Pacific” strategy and a lose general strategic environment, the primary strategic objective of achieving major state status and a “large divide over interests and a major space for autonomous action” shape India’s cautious initiative with respect to its alliance relationships.
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