欧洲国家与乌克兰经济开放模式之比较分析

IF 0.5 Q4 ECONOMICS
O. Zadoia, Phan Minh Duc
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引用次数: 0

摘要

这篇文章提出了一个问题,即一个国家经济的开放程度是否与其经济发展水平相对应。回顾性分析表明,国际贸易的增长与世界国内总产值之间存在着长期密切的相互依存关系,出口所占份额也在加速增长。但近年来,这一比例在2008年达到峰值后,出现了幅度波动,幅度在30%左右。因此,有人提出了一个假设,认为以提高国民经济开放水平为代价,可能存在出口增长和经济发展的限制。在研究中,作者对一些欧洲国家采用的经济开放模式进行了分析,并与乌克兰模式进行了比较,并就乌克兰战后对外经济模式的构建原则提出了建议。在研究过程中,笔者设计了经济开放的绝对和相对指标体系,确定了影响经济开放程度的若干因素。明确了金融开放和对外贸易开放的概念。事实证明,国家在金融开放的形成上比对外贸易开放具有更大的选择自由。基于对国家样本(8个经济发展水平不同的欧盟国家,包括前社会主义国家和乌克兰)的分析,作者探讨了过去十年对外贸易开放的动态。因此,确定了两类国家:一类是指标有一定波动的国家,另一类是指标变化方向明确的国家(减少或增加)。人们发现,较发达的国家通常属于适度开放的经济体。相比之下,最近才加入欧盟(eu)的国家则采用了极度开放的模式。通过计算净出口占GDP的比例,对经济开放度进行了更详细的分析。这样就有可能以另一种方式对国家进行限定:指标在1-2%范围内波动的经济体和具有动态指标的经济体。已经确定,最近转向混合经济模式的国家往往显示出正净出口的增加。鉴于没有公认的金融开放指标,作者建议使用外国资产和负债总和超过国内生产总值两倍作为开放的标准。根据这一标准,只有乌克兰和波兰应该被归类为中等开放国家。所有其他经济体都可以被视为极度开放。对净投资状况的分析首先可以确定一个国家是净接受国还是净投资国,其次可以与国内总产值相比较,评估这一指标对内部进程的影响程度。还计算了用于确定所研究国家对外贸易开放程度和金融开放程度的指标的相对开放指数和配对相关性,特别是:货物和服务出口;外国直接投资、GDP和出口配额。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
MODELS OF ECONOMIC OPENNESS OF EUROPEAN COUNTRIES AND UKRAINE: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS
The article raises the question of whether the openness of an individual country’s economy corresponds to the level of its economic development. Retrospective analysis indicates the existence of a long-term close interdependence of the growth of international trade and world GDP with an accelerated increase in the share of exports. But in recent years, this share, having reached its maximum in 2008, has demonstrated an amplitude fluctuation with a range of 30%. Therefore, a hypothesis has been put forward regarding the existence of a probable limit of exportled growth and economic development at the expense of increasing the level of openness of the national economy. In the study, the authors conduct an analysis of the models of economic openness used in a number of European countries, compare them with the Ukrainian model, and put forward proposals regarding the principles of building a post-war foreign economic model of Ukraine. In the process of research, the authors have designed a system of absolute and relative indicators of economic openness and determined a number of factors affecting the degree of economic openness. The concepts of financial openness and foreign trade openness have been specified. It has been proved that the state has more freedom of choice in the formation of financial openness than foreign trade openness. Based on the analysis of a sample of countries (8 countries of the European Union with different levels of economic development, including former socialist countries and Ukraine), the authors have explored the dynamics of foreign trade openness over the past ten years. As a result, two groups of countries have been identified: a group with a certain fluctuation of the indicator and a group with a clear direction of the change in the indicator (either decrease or increase). It has been found that more developed countries, as a rule, belong to moderately open economies. In contrast, countries that relatively recently have become members of the European Union have ultra-open models. A more detailed analysis of economic openness has been carried out by calculating the ratio of net exports to GDP. This made it possible to qualify countries in another way: economies where the indicator fluctuates within 1-2% and economies with a dynamic indicator. It has been determined that states that have recently switched to a mixed economic model tend to show an increase in the positive net exports. Given the fact that there are no generally accepted indicators of financial openness, the authors have proposed to use a two-fold excess of the country’s GDP by the sum of foreign assets and liabilities as a criterion of openness. According to this criterion, only Ukraine and Poland should be classified as countries with moderate openness. All other economies can be considered ultra-open. The analysis of the net investment position allows, firstly, to identify a country as a net recipient or a net investor, and secondly, to assess the degree of influence of this indicator on internal processes in comparison with GDP. The relative indicators of openness and pair correlation have been also calculated for the indicators used to determine the level of foreign trade openness and financial openness of the countries under study, in particular: exports of goods and services; foreign direct investment, GDP and export quota.
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EGE ACADEMIC REVIEW
EGE ACADEMIC REVIEW ECONOMICS-
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