COVID-19: The Future of African Development Systems

The spread of COVID-19 is a global pandemic that has changed how humans live, produce, interact, and communicate. It has reached into all aspects of life and created great uncertainty, intensifying the vulnerability of struggling populations, and challenging the legitimacy of governments, creating a shared human experience that stretches around the world. Before economic shutdowns and social distancing measures, Africa was on a steady economic growth and development trajectory. In particular, economic shutdowns greatly impacted livelihoods, and altered development patterns forcing policymakers to reimagine development systems. This report introduces a framework to assist decision-makers in thinking about the long-term effects of COVID-19 on development and pursuit of Agenda 2063 in Africa. The report uses a systems framework to understand the effects of COVID-19 on interconnected aspects of government and development. Using the International Futures forecasting model we create two alternative scenarios to assess long-term effects on human development. The results indicate that COVID-19 has specific effects on vulnerable populations, and that policy needs to be directed to such disproportionate impacts. Further, the pandemic will have significant long-term economic impacts that will contribute to indirect mortality rates, increase in extreme poverty and general impact on human development. Overall, the report highlights the interrelatedness between saving lives and saving livelihoods. It also emphasizes the need to re-imagine development by integrating sustainability, inclusive policies, and economic development.