{"title":"一种识别预测模型未知未知数的混合方法","authors":"C. Vandenhof","doi":"10.1609/hcomp.v7i1.5274","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"When predictive models are deployed in the real world, the confidence of a given prediction is often used as a signal of how much it should be trusted. It is therefore critical to identify instances for which the model is highly confident yet incorrect, i.e. the unknown unknowns. We describe a hybrid approach to identifying unknown unknowns that combines the previous crowdsourcing and algorithmic strategies, and addresses some of their weaknesses. In particular, we propose learning a set of interpretable decision rules to approximate how the model makes high confidence predictions. We devise a crowdsourcing task in which workers are presented with a rule, and challenged to generate an instance that “contradicts” it. A bandit algorithm is used to select the most promising rules to present to workers. Our method is evaluated by conducting a user study on Amazon Mechanical Turk. Experimental results on three datasets indicate that our approach discovers unknown unknowns more efficiently than the state-of-the-art.","PeriodicalId":87339,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the ... AAAI Conference on Human Computation and Crowdsourcing","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2019-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"8","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A Hybrid Approach to Identifying Unknown Unknowns of Predictive Models\",\"authors\":\"C. Vandenhof\",\"doi\":\"10.1609/hcomp.v7i1.5274\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"When predictive models are deployed in the real world, the confidence of a given prediction is often used as a signal of how much it should be trusted. It is therefore critical to identify instances for which the model is highly confident yet incorrect, i.e. the unknown unknowns. We describe a hybrid approach to identifying unknown unknowns that combines the previous crowdsourcing and algorithmic strategies, and addresses some of their weaknesses. In particular, we propose learning a set of interpretable decision rules to approximate how the model makes high confidence predictions. We devise a crowdsourcing task in which workers are presented with a rule, and challenged to generate an instance that “contradicts” it. A bandit algorithm is used to select the most promising rules to present to workers. Our method is evaluated by conducting a user study on Amazon Mechanical Turk. Experimental results on three datasets indicate that our approach discovers unknown unknowns more efficiently than the state-of-the-art.\",\"PeriodicalId\":87339,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Proceedings of the ... AAAI Conference on Human Computation and Crowdsourcing\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2019-10-28\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"8\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Proceedings of the ... AAAI Conference on Human Computation and Crowdsourcing\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1609/hcomp.v7i1.5274\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Proceedings of the ... AAAI Conference on Human Computation and Crowdsourcing","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1609/hcomp.v7i1.5274","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
A Hybrid Approach to Identifying Unknown Unknowns of Predictive Models
When predictive models are deployed in the real world, the confidence of a given prediction is often used as a signal of how much it should be trusted. It is therefore critical to identify instances for which the model is highly confident yet incorrect, i.e. the unknown unknowns. We describe a hybrid approach to identifying unknown unknowns that combines the previous crowdsourcing and algorithmic strategies, and addresses some of their weaknesses. In particular, we propose learning a set of interpretable decision rules to approximate how the model makes high confidence predictions. We devise a crowdsourcing task in which workers are presented with a rule, and challenged to generate an instance that “contradicts” it. A bandit algorithm is used to select the most promising rules to present to workers. Our method is evaluated by conducting a user study on Amazon Mechanical Turk. Experimental results on three datasets indicate that our approach discovers unknown unknowns more efficiently than the state-of-the-art.