中国COVID - 19危机期间管理层盈利预测的机会性时机

IF 3.5 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Hanwen Chen, Siyi Liu, Xin Liu, Jiani Wang
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引用次数: 11

摘要

本研究假设COVID-19本地传播的严重程度可以捕捉商业环境宏观层面不确定性的短期波动。考虑到资本市场的压力和获得政府和贷款人有利考虑的动机,我们假设covid -19引发的不确定性可能导致管理人员发布(延迟)预先存在的公司特定的坏(好)消息。我们的基线结果显示,在总部省份最近的COVID-19病例增加(减少)的日子里,企业更有可能披露对2019年不利(有利)的预测。进一步分析的结果为上述报告激励提供了证据,表明机会时机行为在管理层所有权较高的公司、非国有所有权的公司和处于财务困境的公司中更为突出。此外,我们还揭示了地方市场化水平和医疗资源在缓解机会时机行为中的作用。最后,对市场反应的分析表明,对披露日期的操纵可以影响市场价格,使其朝着有利于企业的方向发展。总体而言,我们的论文全面展示了2019冠状病毒病危机中企业机会主义的时机行为。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Opportunistic timing of management earnings forecasts during the COVID‐19 crisis in China
Abstract This study assumes that the severity of local COVID-19 spread can capture the short-run fluctuation of macro-level uncertainty in business environments. Given capital-market pressure and incentives to obtain favourable considerations from the government and lenders, we hypothesise that COVID-19-induced uncertainty can lead managers to release (delay) preexisting firm-specific bad (good) news. Our baseline results show that firms are more likely to disclose unfavourable (favourable) 2019 forecasts in days when recent COVID-19 cases in headquarter provinces increase (decrease). Results in further analyses provide evidence on the aforementioned reporting incentives by showing that the opportunistic timing behaviour is more prominent in firms with higher managerial ownership, non-state ownership, and in firms under financial distress. In addition, we uncover the role of local marketisation level and medical resources in mitigating the opportunistic timing behaviour. Finally, the analysis of market reactions shows that the manipulation of disclosure dates can influence the market price in a favourable direction for firms. Overall, our paper presents a comprehensive picture of corporate opportunistic timing behaviour amid the COVID-19 crisis.
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来源期刊
自引率
10.30%
发文量
21
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