AccuPipePred:为实时钻井作业提供准确、早期卡钻检测框架

A. Magana-Mora, S. Gharbi, Abrar A. Alshaikh, A. Al-Yami
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引用次数: 16

摘要

全面的预先计划和最佳钻井实践可以有效减少卡钻事故,数据分析为进一步减少由意外事件导致的重大非生产时间(NTP)提供了额外的见解。卡钻问题的严重性可能会使钻井作业在短时间内停止,或者在更困难的情况下,钻柱不得不被切断,井眼被侧钻或堵塞并放弃。因此,发现问题的早期迹象,以便采取正确的措施,可能会大大或完全降低卡钻的风险。尽管已经提出了用于卡钻事故早期检测的计算模型,但这些模型是基于减少的卡钻事故井集,这可能会导致训练不足的模型预测大量误报。需要有足够数量的数据或井,在统计上代表不同情况下卡管事故的相关参数,以便推导出可推广和准确的预测模型。为此,我们首先推导了一个从历史数据中自动、系统地提取相关数据的框架。因此,我们的框架可以搜索历史数据,并定位卡钻事故周围的地面钻井和流变参数。此外,我们通过从方差分析中选择排名靠前的参数来进行特征选择,这些参数可以衡量钻井和流变参数的能力,以区分卡钻事件和正常钻井情况,例如钻头上的重量、每分钟转数等。利用方差分析选择的相关特征,我们推导了一个基于随机森林的鲁棒快速分类模型,能够准确地检测卡管事件。所实施的框架包括自动数据提取模块、特征选择方差分析和预测,旨在在实时钻井门户中实施,以帮助钻井工程师和钻井队减少或避免因卡钻造成的NTP。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
AccuPipePred: A Framework for the Accurate and Early Detection of Stuck Pipe for Real-Time Drilling Operations
Thorough preplanning and best drilling practices are effective in reducing stuck pipe incidents, data analytics offer additional insight into further reducing the significant non-productive time (NTP) that results from this unplanned event. The severity of the stuck pipe problem may stop the drilling operations for a short time, or in more difficult cases, the drill string has to be cut and the borehole is sidetracked or plugged and abandoned. Consequently, detecting the early signs of this problem, in order to take the right actions, may considerably or entirely reduce the risk of a stuck pipe. Although computational models have been proposed for the early detection of the stuck pipe incidents, the models are derived from a reduced set of wells with stuck pipe incidents, which may result in under-trained models that predict a large number of false positive alarms. A sufficient amount of data or wells that statistically represent the parameters surrounding stuck pipe incidents under different circumstances is required in order to derive a generalizable and accurate prediction model. For this, we first derived a framework to automatically and systematically extract relevant data from the historical data. As such, our framework searches through the historical data and localizes the surface drilling and rheology parameters surrounding the stuck pipe incidents. Moreover, we performed feature selection by selecting the top-ranked parameters from the analysis of variance, which measures the capability of the drilling and rheology parameters to discriminate between stuck pipe incidents and normal drilling conditions, such as, weight on bit, revolutions per minute, among others. Using the relevant features selected by the analysis of variance, we derived a robust and fast classification model based on random forests that is able to accurately detect stuck pipe incidents. The implemented framework, which includes the automated data extraction module, the analysis of variance for feature selection, and prediction, is designed to be implemented in the real-time drilling portal as an aid to the drilling engineers and the rig crew in order to minimize or avoid the NTP due to a stuck pipe.
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