坦桑尼亚腐败动力学与控制措施的数学建模与分析

IF 0.3 Q4 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED
Oscar Danford, M. Kimathi, S. Mirau
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引用次数: 12

摘要

腐败是一个世界范围的问题,影响到许多国家,在这些国家,许多人失去了权利,社区对公共当局的信心下降,缺乏和平与安全,资源分配不当以及终止就业。尽管各国采取了各种措施来控制腐败,但问题仍然存在。在本文中,我们建立并分析了在控制措施存在的情况下腐败动力学的数学模型。分析表明,该模型同时存在无腐败均衡(CFE)和腐败地方性均衡(CEE)。采用下一代矩阵法计算有效再生数(),用于研究腐败动力学。结果表明,CFE在< 1时是局部和全局渐近稳定的,而CEE在> 1时是全局渐近稳定的。采用归一化前向灵敏度方法描述腐败蔓延最敏感的参数。正敏感参数为κ和ν,负敏感参数为α和β。因此,大众教育α和宗教教育β是控制腐败的最佳参数。在MATLAB中使用龙格-库塔四阶方法对模型进行了仿真,结果表明,与单独使用每种控制策略相比,将大众教育与宗教教学相结合可以在短时间内有效地控制腐败。因此,本研究建议在控制贪污方面,应同时加强大众教育和宗教教育。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Mathematical Modelling and Analysis of Corruption Dynamics with Control Measures in Tanzania
Corruption is a worldwide problem that affects ma ny countries where by individuals loses their rights, lower community con fidence in public authorities, absence of peace and security, misallocation of resources a nd termination of employment. Despite various measures which have been taken by various c ntries to control corruption, the problem still exists. In this paper, we formulate a nd analyze a mathematical model for the dynamics of corruption in the presence of control m easures. Analysis of the model shows that both Corruption Free Equilibrium (CFE) and Cor ruption Endemic Equilibrium (CEE) exist. The next generation matrix method was used to compute the effective reproduction number ( ) which is used to study the corruption dynamics. T he results indicate that CFE is both locally and globally asym ptotically stable when < 1 whereas CEE is globally asymptotically stable when > 1. The normalized forward sensitivity method was used to describe the most sensitive para meters for the spread of corruption. The most positive sensitive parameters are κ and ν while the most negative sensitive parameters are α and β . Therefore, the parameters of mass education α and religious teaching β are the best parameters for control of corruption. The model was simulated using Runge-Kutta fourth order method in MATLAB and the results indicate that the combination of mass education and religious teachin g is effective to corruption control within short time compared to when each control str ategy is used separately. Therefore, this study recommends that more efforts in providin g both mass education and religious teaching should be applied at the same time to cont rol corruption.
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