中国的产权、征用和经济周期

Yin Germaschewski, Jaroslav Horvath, Loris Rubini
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引用次数: 3

摘要

中国的实际商业周期与许多其他国家不同,包括消费比产出更不稳定,与投资不相关。为了研究中国的制度是否可以解释这些特征,我们通过面临建设时间限制、征用和政府支出的私营和国有企业来增加标准的实际商业周期模型。我们对这些活动中的每一个都引入冲击,并用贝叶斯技术估计我们的模型。该模型与显著数据时刻非常接近,其中征用发挥了核心作用。特别是,征收的冲击占消费和产出波动的70%以上,占私人投资波动的60%以上。为了评估我们估计的征收是否在经验上合理,我们表明:(i)模型生成的征收序列与常用的产权衡量标准正相关;(ii)随着政府的反腐运动,征用的解释力在2012年之后大幅下降;(iii)对美国模型进行的安慰剂测试发现,美国的土地征用率约为中国的八分之一,仅占美国总波动的一小部分。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Property Rights, Expropriations, and Business Cycles in China
Abstract Real business cycles in China are different than in many other countries, including consumption being more volatile than output and uncorrelated with investment. To study whether Chinese institutions can account for these features, we augment the standard real business cycle model by private and state-owned enterprises facing time-to-build constraints, expropriations, and government expenditures. We introduce shocks to each of these activities and estimate our model with Bayesian techniques. The model matches the salient data moments quite closely, with expropriations playing a central role. In particular, shocks to expropriations account for over 70% of consumption and output volatility, and over 60% of private investment volatility. To assess whether our estimated expropriations are empirically plausible, we show that: (i) the model-generated expropriation series is positively correlated with a commonly used measure of property rights; (ii) the explanatory power of expropriations drops considerably after 2012, coinciding with the government’s anti-corruption campaign; and (iii) a placebo test estimating the model for the U.S. finds expropriations to be about one eighth of those in China, and to account for only a small share of the U.S. aggregate fluctuations.
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