流行病与经济活动:政策分析框架

P. Flaschel, G. Galanis, Daniele Tavani, Roberto Veneziani
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引用次数: 3

摘要

本文在结构主义/后凯恩斯主义传统的一个简单模型中研究流行病学动态和经济活动动态之间的相互作用。一方面,经济活动的增加增加了接触率,从而增加了接触病毒的可能性。另一方面,不断上升的感染会通过供需渠道降低经济活动。由此产生的框架非常适合通过数值练习进行政策分析。我们表明,首先,在实现群体免疫之前,放任会引起活动和感染的急剧波动。其次,在没有任何经济活动限制的情况下,保持身体距离措施的缓解效果相当有限。第三,封锁是有效的,特别是在降低死亡率和为疫苗广泛推广争取时间方面,其代价是与其他政策相比,经济活动的下滑略显明显。这让人们对所谓的“生命与生计”政策权衡产生了怀疑。然而,我们也强调旨在减轻这一流行病对工人收入影响的政策的重要性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Pandemics and Economic Activity: A Framework for Policy Analysis
This paper studies the interaction between epidemiological dynamics and the dynamics of economic activity in a simple model in the structuralist/post-Keynesian tradition. On the one hand, rising economic activity increases the contact rate and therefore the probability of exposure to a virus. On the other hand, rising infection lowers economic activity through both supply and demand channels. The resulting framework is well-suited for policy analysis through numerical exercises. We show that, first, laissez-faire gives rise to sharp fluctuations in activity and infections before herd immunity is achieved. Second, absent any restrictions on economic activity, physical distancing measures have rather limited mitigating effects. Third, lockdowns are effective, especially at reducing death rates while buying time before a vaccine is widely rolled out, at the cost of a slightly more pronounced downturn in economic activity compared with alternative policies. This casts some doubt on the so-called "lives versus livelihood" policy trade-off. However, we also highlight the importance of policies aimed at mitigating the effects of the epidemic on workers' income.
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