R. Emoto, M. Nishikimi, M. Shoaib, Kei Hayashida, Kazuki Nishida, K. Kikutani, S. Ohshimo, S. Matsui, N. Shime, T. Iwami
{"title":"院外心脏骤停患者院前心律从非休克到休克变化的预测:一项全国性、多中心、前瞻性登记的事后分析","authors":"R. Emoto, M. Nishikimi, M. Shoaib, Kei Hayashida, Kazuki Nishida, K. Kikutani, S. Ohshimo, S. Matsui, N. Shime, T. Iwami","doi":"10.1161/JAHA.121.025048","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Background Predicting a spontaneous rhythm change from nonshockable to shockable before hospital arrival in patients with out‐of‐hospital cardiac arrest can help emergency medical services develop better strategies for prehospital treatment. The aim of this study was to identify predictors of spontaneous rhythm change before hospital arrival in patients with out‐of‐hospital cardiac arrest and develop a predictive scoring system. Methods and Results We retrospectively reviewed data of eligible patients with out‐of‐hospital cardiac arrest with an initial nonshockable rhythm registered in a nationwide registry between June 2014 and December 2017. We performed a multivariable analysis using a Cox proportional hazards model to identify predictors of a spontaneous rhythm change, and a ridge regression model for predicting it. The data of 25 804 patients were analyzed (derivation cohort, n=17 743; validation cohort, n=8061). The rhythm change event rate was 4.1% (724/17 743) in the derivation cohort, and 4.0% (326/8061) in the validation cohorts. Age, sex, presence of a witness, initial rhythm, chest compression by a bystander, shock with an automated external defibrillator by a bystander, and cause of the cardiac arrest were all found to be independently associated with spontaneous rhythm change before hospital arrival. Based on this finding, we developed and validated the Rhythm Change Before Hospital Arrival for Nonshockable score. The Harrell’s concordance index values of the score were 0.71 and 0.67 in the internal and external validations, respectively. Conclusions Seven factors were identified as predictors of a spontaneous rhythm change from nonshockable to shockable before hospital arrival. We developed and validated a score to predict rhythm change before hospital arrival.","PeriodicalId":17189,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the American Heart Association: Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Disease","volume":"56 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2022-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Prediction of Prehospital Change of the Cardiac Rhythm From Nonshockable to Shockable in Out‐of‐Hospital Patients With Cardiac Arrest: A Post Hoc Analysis of a Nationwide, Multicenter, Prospective Registry\",\"authors\":\"R. Emoto, M. Nishikimi, M. Shoaib, Kei Hayashida, Kazuki Nishida, K. Kikutani, S. Ohshimo, S. Matsui, N. Shime, T. Iwami\",\"doi\":\"10.1161/JAHA.121.025048\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Background Predicting a spontaneous rhythm change from nonshockable to shockable before hospital arrival in patients with out‐of‐hospital cardiac arrest can help emergency medical services develop better strategies for prehospital treatment. The aim of this study was to identify predictors of spontaneous rhythm change before hospital arrival in patients with out‐of‐hospital cardiac arrest and develop a predictive scoring system. Methods and Results We retrospectively reviewed data of eligible patients with out‐of‐hospital cardiac arrest with an initial nonshockable rhythm registered in a nationwide registry between June 2014 and December 2017. We performed a multivariable analysis using a Cox proportional hazards model to identify predictors of a spontaneous rhythm change, and a ridge regression model for predicting it. The data of 25 804 patients were analyzed (derivation cohort, n=17 743; validation cohort, n=8061). The rhythm change event rate was 4.1% (724/17 743) in the derivation cohort, and 4.0% (326/8061) in the validation cohorts. Age, sex, presence of a witness, initial rhythm, chest compression by a bystander, shock with an automated external defibrillator by a bystander, and cause of the cardiac arrest were all found to be independently associated with spontaneous rhythm change before hospital arrival. Based on this finding, we developed and validated the Rhythm Change Before Hospital Arrival for Nonshockable score. The Harrell’s concordance index values of the score were 0.71 and 0.67 in the internal and external validations, respectively. Conclusions Seven factors were identified as predictors of a spontaneous rhythm change from nonshockable to shockable before hospital arrival. We developed and validated a score to predict rhythm change before hospital arrival.\",\"PeriodicalId\":17189,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of the American Heart Association: Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Disease\",\"volume\":\"56 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-06-14\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of the American Heart Association: Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Disease\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1161/JAHA.121.025048\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of the American Heart Association: Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Disease","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1161/JAHA.121.025048","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Prediction of Prehospital Change of the Cardiac Rhythm From Nonshockable to Shockable in Out‐of‐Hospital Patients With Cardiac Arrest: A Post Hoc Analysis of a Nationwide, Multicenter, Prospective Registry
Background Predicting a spontaneous rhythm change from nonshockable to shockable before hospital arrival in patients with out‐of‐hospital cardiac arrest can help emergency medical services develop better strategies for prehospital treatment. The aim of this study was to identify predictors of spontaneous rhythm change before hospital arrival in patients with out‐of‐hospital cardiac arrest and develop a predictive scoring system. Methods and Results We retrospectively reviewed data of eligible patients with out‐of‐hospital cardiac arrest with an initial nonshockable rhythm registered in a nationwide registry between June 2014 and December 2017. We performed a multivariable analysis using a Cox proportional hazards model to identify predictors of a spontaneous rhythm change, and a ridge regression model for predicting it. The data of 25 804 patients were analyzed (derivation cohort, n=17 743; validation cohort, n=8061). The rhythm change event rate was 4.1% (724/17 743) in the derivation cohort, and 4.0% (326/8061) in the validation cohorts. Age, sex, presence of a witness, initial rhythm, chest compression by a bystander, shock with an automated external defibrillator by a bystander, and cause of the cardiac arrest were all found to be independently associated with spontaneous rhythm change before hospital arrival. Based on this finding, we developed and validated the Rhythm Change Before Hospital Arrival for Nonshockable score. The Harrell’s concordance index values of the score were 0.71 and 0.67 in the internal and external validations, respectively. Conclusions Seven factors were identified as predictors of a spontaneous rhythm change from nonshockable to shockable before hospital arrival. We developed and validated a score to predict rhythm change before hospital arrival.