Tanaka score predicts surgical intensive care admission following abdominal wall reconstruction.

Purpose: With the advancement of abdominal wall reconstruction, more complex hernia patients are undergoing repairs that may require a postoperative surgical intensive care unit (SICU) admission. The volume ratio (VR) of the hernia sac to the abdominal cavity is an easily applied method to quantify disease severity and the ensuing physiologic insult. This study aimed to predict postoperative SICU admission using VR and other preoperative variables.

Methods: A single-center retrospective review was conducted for patients undergoing large abdominal hernias (width ≥ 18 cm) repaired from September 2014 to October 2019. Patient demographics, comorbidities, abdominal surgical history, and VR were analyzed through univariate and multivariable methods to identify predictors of SICU admission within the first two postoperative days. A predictive model was generated and validated.

Results: Of 434 patients meeting inclusion criteria, 127(29%) required a SICU admission within the first two postoperative days. VR was significantly higher in SICU patients (Median 30.6% [IQR 14.4-59.0] vs. 10.6% [IQR 4.35-23.6], P < 0.001). Male sex, history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, prior component separation, recurrent incisional hernia, hernia grade 3, and VR showed higher odds of SICU admission. When validated on a testing dataset, these variables showed strong SICU admission predictions, with an area under the curve, sensitivity, and specificity of 0.82, 81.7% and 68.5%, respectively.

Conclusions: The volume ratio in combination with preoperatively available variables can reliably predict postoperative SICU admission following abdominal wall reconstruction. Anticipating such events preoperatively allows for bed space allocation as well as optimizing postoperative care.