天花:风险评估与管理的新视角

Jan-Cédric Hansen
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引用次数: 7

摘要

尽管官方的天花储备仅限于两个地点,但关于天花病毒被用于生物恐怖主义的传言由来已久,这使得其风险评估备受争议。在快速概述了天花的历史及其当前的情况分析之后,作者就天花武器化的可能性和其风险管理的新趋势提出了自己的看法。特别地,讨论了如何获得天花样本的四种情况,以及从恐怖分子的角度考虑可行性的潜在故意释放的以下步骤。下面,对早期检测策略进行概述,并特别关注其各自的局限性。然后详细介绍了最新的治疗设备,包括正在开发的药物。最后,作者揭露了一个令人惊讶的悖论,即天花可能被基地组织等恐怖分子用作生物恐怖主义的代理人。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Smallpox: New Perspectives Regarding Risk Assessment & Management
Although official stockpile of smallpox are limited to two sites, everlasting rumors of bioterrorism use of this virus make its risk assessment controversial. After a quick overview of the history of smallpox and its current situational analysis, the author presents his own vision regarding likelihood of smallpox weaponization and new trends regarding its risk management. In particular, four scenarios on how to get hold of smallpox samples are discussed as well as the following steps of potential deliberate release in light of feasibility from the terrorist standpoint. Following, early detection strategies are overviewed with a special focus on their respective limitations. Then up to date therapeutic armamentarium, including drugs under development is detailed. In conclusion, the author exposes a surprising paradox regarding the potential use of smallpox as an agent of bioterrorism by Al-Qaeda terrorists and alike.
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