Response to climate and influence of ocean-atmosphere phenomena on annual radial increments of Pinus oocarpa Schiede ex Schltdl. & Cham in the Lagunas de Montebello National Park, Chiapas, Mexico

The Lagunas de Montebello National Park, Chiapas, Mexico, is one of the most important protected areas in terms of ecology and the provision of ecosystem services in the state of Chiapas; however, it lacks long-term climate information to support comprehensive plans for the conservation of endangered species and ecosystem restoration actions. The objectives of this work were to analyze: (i) the interannual variability of the annual rings of Pinus oocarpa Schiede in the Lagunas de Montebello National Park, as influenced by climate; and (ii) the ocean-atmosphere phenomena influence on both the interannual variability of the total ring-width series. A dendrochronological series of P. oocarpa was built for the period 1857-2018 (162 years), which indicates the presence of extreme hydroclimatic events in the region. Of these, the 1998 drought was a milestone for the management of this natural area due to the high-intensity fires that affected the area and caused unprecedented ecological, social, and economic damage in the site history. The climatic variables with the greatest influence on the annual radial increase of the species are precipitation and maximum temperature in winter-spring, when growth is positively associated with precipitation and negatively associated with temperature, attributed to increases in evapotranspiration. El Niño Southern Oscillation was the phenomenon with the highest correlation with climatic variability and the radial growth of the species, in frequencies of less than five years, although the positive influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation was also assessed annually. Global warming, characterized by increasing temperature, threatens the persistence of plant communities in the study area; therefore, knowing its impact on the growth of species of economic importance is essential to support conservation actions.