AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT EFFECT OF RURAL FINANCE: AN EXTENDED REGRESSION APPROACH

Agricultural output growth is an everlasting realistic problem in human society. Rural finance aims to relieve the financing constraint and pressure on the rural society with capital scarcity through credit aid and support agricultural output growth. However, credit funds cannot be adequately input into agricultural production and management, which adversely impacts agricultural output. To accurately investigate the agricultural output effect of rural finance, using the 2015 China Household Finance Survey’s large-sample micro-survey data, an extended regression model (ERM) was established that could effectively eliminate the endogeneity problem. Then, the agricultural output effect of rural finance was empirically estimated. Subsequently, the robustness of empirical results was tested using the propensity score matching (PSM) method and the Kernel density map. Agricultural technical guidance was introduced to explore its regulating effect on the relationship between rural finance and agricultural output. Furthermore, the robustness test was conducted for different groups, such as the eastern region, the western region, and the central region, to investigate the regional differences in the agricultural output effect of rural finance. The estimation results of ERM indicate that rural finance exerts a significantly positive influence on the agricultural output, and a large estimated coefficient manifests the considerable agricultural output effect of rural finance. The estimation results of the PSM method show that rural finance significantly increases the agricultural output of all peasant household samples averagely by 11,100 CNY. Agricultural technical guidance has a significantly positive regulating effect on the agricultural output effect of rural finance. According to the regional heterogeneity analysis, rural finance is significantly promoted in central and western regions, but it presents an insignificant crowding-out effect in the eastern region. Conclusions in this study can provide pertinent enlightenment for strengthening the productive functions of rural finance and lay a theoretical foundation for facilitating its healthy development.