{"title":"利用长短期记忆法预测第25和26太阳周期","authors":"Xiaohuan Liu, S. Zeng, L. Deng, X. Zeng, S. Zheng","doi":"10.1093/pasj/psad029","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"\n Solar activities directly or indirectly affect space missions, geophysical environment, space climate, and human activities. We used the long short-term memory (LSTM) deep learning method to predict the amplitude and peak time of solar cycles (SCs) 25 and 26 by using the monthly relative sunspot number data taken from the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan (NAOJ). The dataset is divided into eight schemes of two to nine slices for training, showing that the five-slice LSTM model with root mean square error of 11.38 is the optimal model. According to the prediction, SC 25 will be about 21$\\%$ stronger than SC 24, with a peak of 135.2 occurring in 2024 April. SC 26 will be similar to SC 25 and reach its peak of 135.0 in 2035 January. Our analysis results indicate that the sunspot data from NAOJ is highly credible and comparable.","PeriodicalId":20733,"journal":{"name":"Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan","volume":"69 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2000,"publicationDate":"2023-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Predicting the 25th and 26th solar cycles using the long short-term memory method\",\"authors\":\"Xiaohuan Liu, S. Zeng, L. Deng, X. Zeng, S. Zheng\",\"doi\":\"10.1093/pasj/psad029\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"\\n Solar activities directly or indirectly affect space missions, geophysical environment, space climate, and human activities. We used the long short-term memory (LSTM) deep learning method to predict the amplitude and peak time of solar cycles (SCs) 25 and 26 by using the monthly relative sunspot number data taken from the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan (NAOJ). The dataset is divided into eight schemes of two to nine slices for training, showing that the five-slice LSTM model with root mean square error of 11.38 is the optimal model. According to the prediction, SC 25 will be about 21$\\\\%$ stronger than SC 24, with a peak of 135.2 occurring in 2024 April. SC 26 will be similar to SC 25 and reach its peak of 135.0 in 2035 January. Our analysis results indicate that the sunspot data from NAOJ is highly credible and comparable.\",\"PeriodicalId\":20733,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan\",\"volume\":\"69 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-05-02\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"101\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1093/pasj/psad029\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"物理与天体物理\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan","FirstCategoryId":"101","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1093/pasj/psad029","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Predicting the 25th and 26th solar cycles using the long short-term memory method
Solar activities directly or indirectly affect space missions, geophysical environment, space climate, and human activities. We used the long short-term memory (LSTM) deep learning method to predict the amplitude and peak time of solar cycles (SCs) 25 and 26 by using the monthly relative sunspot number data taken from the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan (NAOJ). The dataset is divided into eight schemes of two to nine slices for training, showing that the five-slice LSTM model with root mean square error of 11.38 is the optimal model. According to the prediction, SC 25 will be about 21$\%$ stronger than SC 24, with a peak of 135.2 occurring in 2024 April. SC 26 will be similar to SC 25 and reach its peak of 135.0 in 2035 January. Our analysis results indicate that the sunspot data from NAOJ is highly credible and comparable.
期刊介绍:
Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan (PASJ) publishes the results of original research in all aspects of astronomy, astrophysics, and fields closely related to them.