{"title":"一个几乎完全可预测的过程,没有最佳预测器","authors":"Dariusz Kalociński, Tomasz Steifer","doi":"10.1109/ISIT.2019.8849587","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"A novel kind of a negative result is presented for the problem of computable prediction. A non-stationary binary stochastic process is constructed for which almost surely no effective method of prediction achieves the infimum of prediction errors defined as the normalized Hamming distance between the sequence of predictions and the realization of the process. Yet it is shown that this process may be effectively predicted almost surely up to an arbitrarily small error since the infimum of prediction errors is zero.","PeriodicalId":6708,"journal":{"name":"2019 IEEE International Symposium on Information Theory (ISIT)","volume":"11 1","pages":"2504-2508"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2019-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"An Almost Perfectly Predictable Process with No Optimal Predictor\",\"authors\":\"Dariusz Kalociński, Tomasz Steifer\",\"doi\":\"10.1109/ISIT.2019.8849587\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"A novel kind of a negative result is presented for the problem of computable prediction. A non-stationary binary stochastic process is constructed for which almost surely no effective method of prediction achieves the infimum of prediction errors defined as the normalized Hamming distance between the sequence of predictions and the realization of the process. Yet it is shown that this process may be effectively predicted almost surely up to an arbitrarily small error since the infimum of prediction errors is zero.\",\"PeriodicalId\":6708,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"2019 IEEE International Symposium on Information Theory (ISIT)\",\"volume\":\"11 1\",\"pages\":\"2504-2508\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2019-07-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"2\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"2019 IEEE International Symposium on Information Theory (ISIT)\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1109/ISIT.2019.8849587\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"2019 IEEE International Symposium on Information Theory (ISIT)","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ISIT.2019.8849587","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
An Almost Perfectly Predictable Process with No Optimal Predictor
A novel kind of a negative result is presented for the problem of computable prediction. A non-stationary binary stochastic process is constructed for which almost surely no effective method of prediction achieves the infimum of prediction errors defined as the normalized Hamming distance between the sequence of predictions and the realization of the process. Yet it is shown that this process may be effectively predicted almost surely up to an arbitrarily small error since the infimum of prediction errors is zero.